How
to be a winner
It will be of no surprise to regular readers of this
site that Smartgambler believes that the only way
of gaining a long term edge from football betting
is to be able to accurately frame a market and then
find 'overs', games in which a certain result pays
more than it should according to an accurate assessment
of both teams' chances.
In any market that uses a totalisator system, a certain
amount of the 'pie' is removed by the gaming institution
and the government. Punters are effectively fighting
each other to grab a bigger slice of the remaining
pie than what they contributed to the pool. Therefore,
it boils down to whether the advantage in skill that
the smart gambler has over the average punter is large
enough to outweigh the slice of pie that has been
removed.
Fortunately
for the serious football gambler, many people who
bet on AFL matches are recreational punters whose
gambling patterns are affected by spurious factors
such as club loyalty, the profile of a particular
team in their state and so forth. It is this emotional
or uninformed bet that allows the smart gambler to
gain an edge.
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Clarke CV 
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