It will be of no surprise to regular readers of this site that Smartgambler believes that the only way of gaining a long term edge from football betting is to be able to accurately frame a market and then find 'overs', games in which a certain result pays more than it should according to an accurate assessment of both teams' chances.
In any market that uses a totalisator system, a certain amount of the 'pie' is removed by the gaming institution and the government. Punters are effectively fighting each other to grab a bigger slice of the remaining pie than what they contributed to the pool. Therefore, it boils down to whether the advantage in skill that the smart gambler has over the average punter is large enough to outweigh the slice of pie that has been removed.
Fortunately for the serious football gambler, many people who bet on AFL matches are recreational punters whose gambling patterns are affected by spurious factors such as club loyalty, the profile of a particular team in their state and so forth. It is this emotional or uninformed bet that allows the smart gambler to gain an edge.