Introduction
I do not feel obliged
to believe that the same God who has endowed us
with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us
to forgo their use.
Galileo Galilei
In this advice section of Smartgambler
we will try to expose some of the common misconceptions
that lead to the very poor rate of return that Australian
(and overseas gamblers too) achieve on average.
As stated on our index page, the odds are stacked
against punters in most gambling activities and
in these cases it would be better not to play, but
that still doesn't explain why gamblers consistently
lose far more than the odds dictate that
they should.
For example, land based casino returns on Blackjack
have been estimated as almost 2% on turnover, and
much higher for really bad players. Yet correct
basic strategy, without card counting, should
only yield the house a 0.5% advantage. Punters are
giving roughly four times more money to the
casino than they need to for their blackjack entertainment,
considering that basic strategy for Blackjack can
be memorised in under an hour.
A poor grasp of basic probability theory and an
unwillingness to discard superstition and replace
it with a hard nosed statistical approach to gaming
is one of the main causes behind this debacle.
Your presence here on Smartgambler most likely
indicates a wish to exercise intelligence and skill
in your gambling activities and we applaud you for
that. The following pages will reinforce what you
probably already know, that knowledge, logic, common
sense and discipline are the paths to better gambling
returns, not blind reliance on lady luck.
Next Probability
Theory
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