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Principles for successful betting on AFL football

If you have not considered both of these already you are unlikely to be a long term winner at footy betting, but we give them in any case. Theoretically there is no reason why yesterday's loser cannot metamorphosize into tomorrow's winner, though this rarely occurs for personality reasons. Readers of this site may perhaps be more likely to change their losing habits!

  1. Maximise your information.
    Unless you have good reason to believe the odds are going to tighten, place your bet as late as possible. Many things affect the outcome of an AFL match and such things as the withdrawal of a key player can occur at any time. The earlier you place your bet, the less information you have.

  2. Bet against the crowd.
    Because football is an emotion charged game, many bets are placed by people as a way of showing tangible support for a team. Teams with larger followings will tend to attract more emotional money and therefore offer shorter odds than they logically should. Conversely, less popular teams will generally offer better odds. This means that a disproportionate number of value bets are likely to be on the underdog, as you go head to head against the emotional bet.

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