AFL football betting

Oldest posts at the bottom.

The bottom part of this page is for our inaugural 2002 season

For testimonials from 2003 season click here

For testimonials from 2004 season click here

Note: Our policy since 2004 is to publish just one or two testimonials relevant to the current year, as it was getting a bit too much. A few of these can usually be found at the top of the testimonials on this page in bold.

Unlike some businesses, we do not write our own testimonials! This shabby practice deserves to be exposed wherever it can be shown to be happening. Lay-out has been standardised and punctuation and spelling corrected in some cases for readability. Some members of our AFL 'insiders' mailing list appear more than once because of frequent communication amongst the group.

If you are genuinely considering purchasing a Smartgambler AFL package we can in special circumstances put you in touch with the people whose comments are quoted in this section. Smartgambler thanks these people most sincerely for their kind words and will happily remove their comments if requested.

Sent: Monday, 27 February 2012 1:09 PM
To: Guy West
Subject: Re: AFL

Thanks Guy.
I had a fantastic betting season last year. If this year is anything like it I'll be as happy as Larry!
Best Chris

Sent: Monday, 22 March 2010 11:17 PM
To: Guy West
Subject: Fwd: [all_members] AFL group

Hi Guy,
Running short of time.
Can you send me the Round 1 AFL stuff and I'll arrange payment later in the week.
Best year ever last year at 17.1% pot and an average of 8.4% over 7 years. Gives me a non-vice like hobby!!
All the best, Glenn.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 12 October 2002 5:57 PM
To: Guy West
Subject: 2002 AFL footy betting


Just a short note to say that I really enjoyed the football betting this year. Living in Hong Kong and travelling a bit meant that I could not devote that much time to it, but it really did make following the footy much more interesting.

As well, reading the messages from the constant contributors was informative and in some cases highly entertaining.

And I made some money. I put $1,200 into an IAS account.

Returns were: Following the Kelly system (generally 10% cutoff and 1/2 Kelly): ($93.20) - not so good.

Selected head to head games, parlaying 4-5 games $161.05.

Selected 'lines' games, parlaying 4-5 games $348.50.

Miscellaneous bets, multiples etc. $165.65.

Tipping competitions $303.89.

So, I made $582 on turnover of $4,555, which was not bad for a tentative start.

I'm looking forward to next year and with the experience of this year will be a bit more adventurous.

Regards, Glenn.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 23 September 2002 11:44 AM
Subject: RE: AFL tips, grand final


Good morning. Sincere thanks for an outstanding service throughout the past season. A great result for many of us. Will definitely be a starter for next year. Will you e-mail the current subscribers & advise re next years arrangements?

I have as yet to decide re the tennis. Is the reduced rate applicable for a little longer?

Regards & thanks, Michael.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 21 September 2002 8:33 AM
Subject: [Afl] Arbitrage - Simple


Some of you may be interested in an easy arbitrage situation on Brownlow head to heads. The players are the Kangaroos Archer and Stevens. At Stevens is $2.00 to beat Archer. At Norm Short Archer is $2.40 to beat Stevens. Both are Aussie firms that are easy to access and collect from. Norm Short will charge 3% credit card fee, Sportsbet nothing, so hop in and make a few easy dollars.

Cheers, MAC.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 3 September 2002 6:06 PM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Season 2002 Wrap-up

Many thanks to everyone for their great contributions here during season. It has been a fantastic source of information, which has managed to keep me on the straight and narrow during the course of the season. I've also picked up a huge amount, none the least there are many ways to skin a cat and it's always best to be continually open to new ideas and methods.

I think we will all be be back next season bigger, better and stronger from all that's been learnt this season .... can't wait.

To Stephen Clarke, his computer and program, well done again, the selections have on the whole been very good again with a few bad rounds along the way which is only to be expected. To Guy, for his Monday e-mail which was the one I looked forward to most each week, many thanks.

I'm carrying on normally for the next 9 matches to see the season out and looking forward to the coming tennis package. I know nothing about tennis, but like watching and following it, so I'm in.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 3 September 2002 6:13 PM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Season 2002 Wrap-up

Good afternoon. I know I haven't provided a lot of feedback through the year but I have been very pleased. I ended up with 121 winners on Tipstar and generally a good profit from my footy punting.

I like fewer bets but larger investments, particularly with the start middle. I like the horses and tend to spend a reasonable amount of my time on them.

Definitely interested in the tennis, although I have not had a bet on it to date.

Regards and thanks, Michael.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 3 September 2002 2:22 PM
Subject: [Afl] Season 2002 Wrap-up

Hi all.

Well, I have thoroughly enjoyed the season, with all it's ups and downs. Learnt heaps, have heaps to learn yet!

For those interested, here are some details from my season. Thought I'd stick it in 2 columns, because I made a major change to my system after about Round 8 and tweaked it a bit more at Round 12. So one column is my actual, the other is how it would have looked if I'd used my current system for the entire year.

Capital $3000
Account seeding bonus $300
Stake $3300
Actual                                             Projected
Profit $6818*                                 $32,394
Profit % 207%                                882%
Turnover $93,620                           $269,480
Profit on Turnover 7.4%                 10.8%

Number of Bets 83                         69
Number of Wins 56                        51
Percentage Wins 67%                    74%

Largest Single Bet $4,400               $14,210
Largest Single Profit $2,267            $7,518
Largest Single Loss $3,000             $8,530

Per Dollar Wagered:
Average Price $1.66                      $1.47
Wins Reqd to Breakeven 60%       68%
Percentage Wins 71%                    78%

* Does not include $1020 profit from Final 8 bets.

Of course, this doesn't prove anything, except that I was a lucky rookie! If I can repeat this during my summer campaigns, and again with the AFL in 2003, only then will I be convinced that I should relinquish my rookie status :-)

I thought it's interesting though.... if anyone else is willing to do the full Monty and "bare all", I'd love to see how you shaped up over the season, and any comments or suggestions you may have.

Cheers, Max the Rookie :-)

(Note: Max has not factored in the cost of the package in this analysis.)

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 25 August 2002 5:24 PM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Bets rd 21

Yeah Max, and set the profit protection with the drink. Profit now up from 55% to 103% of initial bank.Great weekend for overlay betting.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 23 August 2002 12:29 AM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Round 20 bets

Thank you for all you analysis Max. It is very helpful to me to gain insight into punting. It is good to see the sharing on this private forum. I have yet to find another forum that deals with AFL punting in depth..

Cheers, Bazz from Adelaide.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, August 19, 2002 1:56 PM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Round 20 bets

As a group I think we have done well this weekend. Thanks to Port & Brisbane I finished well up for the weekend. Thanks to the computer I even won on a 1-39 margin on Port (a good bonus).

I like the "Tinhead" for now. To get the Port result to within a goal is as good as you can get. I'm happy to say the Visa card is paid off . I haven't done that for three years. Thanks all. Long live smart betting.


----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:48 PM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Round 20 bets

I had a great weekend. One bet, $1000 on an all up both teams under 39&1/2 ie Sydney ($2.30) Melbourne ($2.50) odds 5.75-1. Thus, a nice little earner. Also tipped 7/8; missed Richmond. I think most punters finished in front. Guy et al have been a significant factor in my success to date. A really great year, well over what I thought I would win.

Regards, Michael.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 18 August 2002 17:45
Subject: Re: [Afl] Round 20 bets

Well what a weekend for me. Had 38% of my bank on the line and ended up + 2%. A real roller coaster weekend for me. Losses on Collingwood h/h and Sydney at the line. I will be re evaluating my criteria for line bets with a negative component. In the future I will accept a 40 % return instead of going for the 90 % on the line.

This year I have been very successful on bets on the underdog with a headstart. This is my first year punting. Does anybody have previous years data on underdogs covering the line or is this a quirk for this year? Are there any publications that have a record of what the bookies line was?

Very glad Adelaide kick a goal after the siren thus changing my weekend from a negative to a small positive. Also a win on Richmond with a +10 bet.

I am still happy as this is my first year punting on anything. Just like the rookie Max, but not with the success that Max has had. Bank is showing a 56% gain to date, so I am thinking of taking a break until 2003. Only thinking!

Cheers and happy punting, Bazz from Adelaide.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, August 05, 2002 12:03 AM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Round 18

I am pleased with this forum as it gives timely feedback and I feel I belong to a community of like minded people, who just happen to be punters!


(Excerpt. Bazz is referring to the AFL insiders mailing list)

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 10:29 PM
To: AFL Newsgroup
Subject: [Afl] Round 17

"...So far, it seems to me there are just a few factors you need to stick to for a successful assault on sports gaming:

1. Knowing the odds (thanks, Steve)
2. A wagering plan (thanks, Mr Kelly)
3. A profit protection plan (thanks, conservative friends)...and
4. The willpower to stick with your system.

The proof is in the pudding, 302% proof in fact, despite a losing weekend for round 16. Of that, 120% is 'locked in', so I'll be happy come win, draw or loss for the rest of the season..."

Good luck all with round 17!

Cheers, Max.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 10:05 AM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Master of all Trades

I also had a good weekend. If I had just started and only bet on overlays I would of got 4/4. Every overlay came in this week. So some rough calculations would give a 70% increase in bank. I now have a healthy 20% increase so I am content. So, on to round 16.

Bazz from Adelaide.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 11:04 AM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Excellent Weekend

One Bet for the weekend - West Coast. Inceased overall profit from 45% to 76%.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 10:02 AM
Subject: [Afl] Excellent Weekend

My update...

Due to size of the bets as I calculate them - all between 35-40% of bank - I waited until the Roos result before placing my Crows bet.

After the Crows won, I decided to protect profits by reducing from Full Kelly to Quarter Kelly for the Demons game, to ensure a profit for the weekend even if they lost.

As it was they came home without drama, so I'm 86% ahead for the weekend and 312% for the season to date.

The Eagles were a great win - I think many of this group had them - but they didn't fit the strategy I'm currently using, so I didn't back them.

Cheers, Max.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, July 09, 2002 2:07 AM
Subject: [Afl] Round 14

I had a fairly good weekend.

I backed Richmond each way, (half @ $2.30 win, half @ $1.90 + 9.5), Geelong win @ $1.65, double Geelong -9.5 / Kangaroos $1.59, Sydney +15.5 at the line, Port @ $1.42 and -19.5 at line and Western Bulldogs @ $2.40 and +10.5.

All of those I feel could be justified in terms of overlay and team balance.

However then, because I'm a desperate who was flushed with success, I backed Brisbane -37.5 and Adelaide -3.5 at the line. I will never back Brisbane again unless I am sure that Keating, Lappin and most particularly Voss are playing. They are just a different side without them. Coincidentally, Brisbane have only covered the bookies' line 6 times out of 14 this year. Adelaide, Western, North and Port lead the way with 9 wins at the points each.

In conclusion, I think we should all congratulate Steve, as I believe his strike rate vis-a-vis the marketplace has been outstanding. I hope, in saying that, I have not jonahed us all like those imbeciles on TV do every time some poor bludger's lining up for goal.

Regards, Crimson Tide.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, July 06, 2002 10:51 PM
Subject: Re: [Afl] computer RIGHT ON THE MONEY

Picked the draw in the work footy tipping competition, which was worth 10 points. Which puts me up with the leaders. Considering first prize is $4,500, I'm excited !!!

$176,035.60 was the footyquad payout! It was pleasing that the spreadsheet I wrote in conjuction with the computer's selections picked the footyquad in its first week. Will see how it performs next week. Did not make a bet though due to the high outlay, (well in relation to my finances!)

James your thoughts? Still will need to work on it to reduce the outlay needed to meet the spreadsheet's predictions.

Once again the computer picks the winners of the footyquad and the margin correctly in two games !


----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, July 06, 2002 9:18 PM
Subject: [Afl] computer RIGHT ON THE MONEY

Western Bulldogs by zero points, wow what a prediction!!! Anyone have any money on that?


(The Swinburne computer correctly predicted the round 14 draw between Western and Essendon after picking all eight winners the week before. This was of course an abnormally good result, even for the computer.)

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 6:53 PM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Brisbane - Good Grief!

Totally agree with you Greg. For years I have underperformed in footy tipping, betting etc. I had a method of betting which made a few dollars but nowhere near the percentage I am making this year. I paid for this service so I wouldn't have to make adjustments, selections, changes etc.

I am also leading one tipping competition and am four behind in a massive one and believe that following the selections will put me in the prizemoney.

I personally only bet if there is a 10%+ overlay. As you all know I also bet on tennis and I don't need action every AFL match day as there are tennis events to keep me occupied nearly 365 days of the year.

As a result of my overlay cut off, my weekend consisted of losses on Richmond, Sydney and Adelaide outright, with wins on Geelong and the Kangaroos and a small profit on the Bulldogs.

As mentioned earler in the year I also bet on the spread for outsiders so had collects on Sydney and Bulldogs. (Didn't try Richmond). Overall profit for the week was 24.28%, (so a nice week).

Missed Port as I had the best price at $1.36 (only a 4.18% overlay). I have also decided that betting on Richmond is a sure fire way to go broke. Apologies to Tiger supporters, but they are very ordinary indeed.

Regards, Tonymess.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 6:38 PM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Brisbane - Good Grief!

Had two bets for the weekend, both winners. Geelong @ $1.65 and Western @ $3.00 under 39.5, both collects. I decided not to bet Sunday as I had a gut feeling there would be upsets and I was right and saved my money.

I am up 46 % for the year to date.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 3:15 PM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Brisbane - Good Grief!


You are correct. If you back only overlays greater than 17 % as recommended on the Swinburne website you will have a very good chance of increasing the bank.

For those that need more info on this you can find the past performance of betting on only large overlays at There is a graph for last year showing what you would have made from a $100 bank just betting on overlays greater than 17 %. The disadvantage of this is that you don't get many overlays over 17 %.

But being patient does pay dividends! If you start with a large bank then you only need a few good bets to feel that you are making good money. I started in round ten and have only put bets on overlays larger than 17% (Sportsbet) So far I have got them all. Geelong round ten and Adelaide. Then Geelong again when they beat Sydney. These games had overlays.

Last round (round 14) I went with Geelong, Port and the Kangaroos. Although they had overlays <17% they had good chances of winning as per the computer. Port was at 76.6%, Geelong 69.9% and Kangaroos 72 % and they all had overlays! Western versus Essendon was too close to call.

Sportsbet early in the week was giving the same price for Adelaide and Collingwood. I thought this was too risky a bet despite the good overlay on Adelaide.

In short stick to large overlays and over time you will realise a good profit if you are Full Kelly betting. (Of course if anyone was brave enough and used the spreadsheet I sent out for the footyquad you would have $179,000 in your pocket) Does anyone know of any footyquad syndicates ?


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:35 AM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Last Wimbledon Update

Hi T.

I had bets on six games, including Sydney. Took West Coast as well as Essendon, Geelong, Port and Hawthorn. Missed Brisbane inadvertently. Great weekend, with profits of 73% of bank, taking total for season to 212%. Now to try and hang on to the profits <grin>, especially as it's shaping up as a big weekend of betting again.

Had something on Malisse and watched Scud until I flaked at 1:30am, when they were one game each.

Cheers, Max.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, June 30, 2002 11:20 AM
Subject: [Afl] Footy quad.

Computer picks the winners of the footy quad again, if not the margin. Geelong(42 pts), Port (46pts), Collingwood (33pts), Brisbane (15 pts). Dividend for $1 was $9,719.70.

I think the computer has now done this 2 times since round 10? James, can you confirm how many times the computer has picked the four winners in the Quad this season?

I took one selection on Geelong, two on Port, two on Collingwood and one on Brisbane, using the computer's margin as a guide. Still missed out, damn!

Footywin returns were good if you backed all the computer's picks from 0 to 36 pts, e.g $1 on each each bracket 0-12 pts and 13 to 36 pts you would have...

Collected on Essendon $7.30, Collingwood $3.00, Brisbane $9.60.

Lost on Geelong ($8.60) and Port ($2.50)

(Returns are for $1) Running total would be $19.90. Will have a closer look in regards to footy quad betting.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, June 16, 2002 11:47 AM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Geelong

Crimson Tide,
That's three overlay bets in a row that have come in for the computer. ( i e Betting on overlays greater than 17%). Only did a Half Kelly on Geelong though.

When I looked at the recent results for Geelong vs Sydney over the past five years, Geelong had a good record vs Sydney and have played well at the SCG.

Regards, CM.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, June 06, 2002 4:54 PM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Swinburne computer and that man Kelly


According to my figures, this staking would be returning +37% on turnover this season to date. You would have had 33 bets @ $100 ( $3,300 turnover ) for a total collect of $4,532 and a subsequent season profit of $1,232 after 10 rounds.

Again, shows the Swinburne ratings have been good this season. Kelly staking hasn't paid off this season to date due to patterns of wins/losses. However, this can quickly change, a few good weekends in a row and Kelly betting quickly forges to the lead.


PS. I give 50% payout on the St Kilda draw, which helps a bit. Many bookies only gave money back.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, June 06, 2002 10:42 AM
Subject: RE: [Afl] Swinburne computer and that man Kelly

Sorry guys, the staking plan I mentioned in earlier post is to collect (not win) a fixed amount per bet. I find it provides a good measurement of performance.

You stake each bet to collect the same, fixed amount (say $1,000) eg if bookies at 2.5, bet $400 to collect $1,000, if bookies at 1.5, bet $667 to collect $1,000.

This staking plan for the season to date is showing a profit of 28% on turnover. I'm not recommending it, simply mentioned it as it provides a good measure of performance. Kelly betting doesn't really show up performance, as it is far too dependent upon its last few bets.

Simply wanted to make the point that the Swinburne ratings have actually performed quite well as always, as shown by this staking plan.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, June 03, 2002 11:08 PM
Subject: RE: Round 11 Tips,comments and Spreadsheets

Dear Guy,

Would you please re-send me the info for round 11 if you havent already done so. My account was overloaded and I think it couldn't get through. I also had a great weekend. Only new to actually punting on AFL, even though I'm a footy fan and love the game.

Cheers, A.O.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, June 03, 2002 6:03 PM
Subject: [Afl] Great Weekend

Hi all.

Last weekend was the best I've had yet, with 101% increase in bank. Full Kelly's on Geelong and Adelaide were responsible, while small "token" bets on Essendon, Sydney, Port and Freo pretty much cancelled each other out.

Now the trick will be to hang on to these profits!

Cheers, Max.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, May 07, 2002 6:55 PM
To: Guy West
Subject: RE: AFL round 7


Welcome back. I think you are doing a great job. It has helped me very much. (I have 33/48 thus far with the tips, Tipstar can validate)

Looking forward to continued success,


(In an AFL insiders message on the same day, Michael's profit after round 7 was listed as $28,000 on unspecified turnover.)

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, April 29, 2002 8:33 AM
Subject: Re: [Afl] Payouts


You may be interested in this. I am tracking the results of my PURE system versus my actual results (where I over-ride certain games). So far the PURE system is outperforming my modified system by 7.2 points. PURE growth = 75.8%, vs Actual growth 68.6% for the season.


(The 'actual growth' in Matt's original bank, referred to above, was after 5 rounds of AFL betting.)

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, April 26, 2002 6:27 AM
Subject: [Afl] Roughies Weekend

Lets hope the Magpies were the start of a shocking round for tipsters but a great round for Swinburne overlay punters! A Full Kelly bet on the Magpies at $5.25 with Norm Short was a great start to the round. A couple more roughies, (Saints @ $6.59 & Eagles @ $4.50) would be very nice.


(St Kilda drew at massive odds for a half face-value payout and the Eagles defeated Brisbane in one of the most profitable rounds to date.)

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:06 AM
To: Guy West
Subject: RE: Tips for round 5


Thanks, I hope it continues.Your package has been terrific.

Thanks, Michael.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, April 16, 2002 1:16 PM
Subject: Re: Round four tips

Dear Guy,

I would like to be put on Don's 'insiders' mailing list. Congratulations to you and the team. What a top weekend result. Thanks to you all for the professional info you are providing us with.

Have a good day.

Cheers, Anthony.

Hi Guy.

I would like to join the discussion forum. I haven't joined as yet as I have spent the last three weeks on holidays in Queensland and it was a bit hard to get my emails etc. Been making a nice profit so far with Melbourne Round 1, Kangaroos and Fremantle Round 2 and Carlton and Brisbane last weekend.

Have tried a few other things outside of the Kelly system (like Fremantle Round 2) and have paid for my subscription twice over. Hope to be able to add years of sporting punting knowledge to the forum.

Regards, Tony.

(Received 15-4-2002 with regard to insiders mailing list for AFL clients)


Using my Half / Full Kelly system, I was going to put a Half Kelly bet on the Kangaroos with a 12% overlay. When the price lengthed from $1.75 to $1.80 at Global Sports Bet, I switched to a Full Kelly bet (overlay 15.2%) and invested 19% of the pot. I'm quite happy about that!

Regards, Matt.

(Received 8-4-2002 in regard to round 2 betting)

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 6:08 PM
To: Guy West
Subject: RE: tips round 2


Sincere thanks. Most impressed with the service.

Regards, Michael.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, April 01, 2002 10:56 PM
To: Guy West
Subject: Re: Missed bet

Hi Guy.

I got Adelaide at $1.95 on Canbet on Friday when most bookies were offering $1.85 or $1.90, by using OnThePunt's link to the latest odds. At 15% overlay, I decided $1.95 was close enough.

OnThePunt's link to the latest odds is a very useful resource as it shows the odds offered by 8 different bookies for all of the games.

Overall I got off to a good start as I got Melbourne at $4.06 (Canbet through OnThePunt again) and finally, decided not to back Geelong as Steve stated he had some concerns about the computer's ratings of Essendon and I thought the actual odds offered were pretty true.


-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, April 01, 2002 8:41 PM
Subject: Round One

Gidday Guy.

Good to see that Steve has kicked off the season on the mark, with Melbourne thrown up at a huge overlay and a Kelly bet of 12% of the bank. The warnings surrounding Geelong were handy also, and as such I chose to make that game a Half Kelly. It's great to be in a strong position early and be able to bet with the bookies money for a while. I notice Melbourne firmed in from $4.25 which I got, to $3.30 at games start. I am sure this wasn't all our doing, but maybe we caused a bit of it. Hope we can keep this up.

Regards, Blair.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 13 July 2001 3:18 PM
Subject: WWW Form Submission

Comments: Excellent site, I especially love the fact that you use mathematically proven arguments and that you also give links to problem gambling sites. I'm currently doing a PHD in sports statistics at Swinburne University, and I was wondering if you could link to my web site:

Thanks, Jonno.

(This e-mail resulted in us meeting Stephen Clarke.)

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