AFL football betting
testimonials
2004 season
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-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 26 September 2004 2:13 AM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] Grand Final
Straight out and at the line...nice! What a way to
finish a very, very good season. 16.5% POT and a very
nice increase in the bank. I'll just add my overall
results, now 3 years in a row!
(Gives table of results.)
Thanks again for the fun and advice from you all...see
you next year!
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 25 September 2004 6:48 PM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] Grand Final
Yes...well done Guy and how fitting for a Tinhead
overlay to be the final winner. What a year. Many
thanks Guy and Stephen; no matter what system one
used I'm sure we all had a very profitable year.
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 25 September 2004 5:46 PM
Subject: [afl_list] Sincere Thanks
I would like to pass on a hearty thanks to Steve
et al for a very successful season and I look forward
to plundering the bookies yet again in 2005. Great
work by the whole team - goodness knows what I'll
do next weekend!
Kindest Regards, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 25 September 2004 5:34 PM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] Grand Final
Well done Glenn, Tony, Max and Guy with his fearless
"over 39.5 win" at $11 and "changing of
the guard" prediction... and all the rest (not me)
who followed Tinhead. (Port an 18% overlay in the
end at $ 2.80)
A good finals series for Tinhead, only excelled by
Guy's selections. Cheers to Tinhead and Guy for an
enjoyable and profitable season.
Possibly the best season for Tinhead in the four
I've been following.
Irakli.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 22 September 2004 12:48 AM
Subject: [afl_list] Week 4
No obvious bets on the Grand Final? What are people
doing for fun? A very nice (maybe conservative) return
of 45% over the series so far. Maybe I'll stick with
that.
Glenn.
("The series" refers to the AFL finals
matches. Subsequent to this e-mail it became apparent
that Port Adelaide was an overlay and a popular bet
with the AFL group.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 20 September 2004 11:41 AM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] Prelim finals
Had the Cats on the Line as well as Head to Head,
so pretty well broke even. Would have been a great
score if the Cats had been just slightly more accurate!
And Tinhead had it pegged pretty well!
Can't complain though, had a great year. Now the
long, long wait till the 2005 season!
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 19 September 2004 1:20 AM
Subject: [afl_list] Missing excel sheets from week
01
Hi all.
Once again an interesting year with good profits
on AFL, but since I would like to try to optimize
my "operation" for next year I will do some analyses
during winter (summer down under I guess ;-)
But - I am still missing Steve's excel-file from
week 1 back in March. Does anyone by chance still
have it ?
Thanks, Jorgen.
(Yes, we have an AFL subscriber from Denmark!
He even spotted an arbitrage for us in our first season.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 16 September 2004 2:11 AM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] Week 3
Another observation on Tony's rule, and it has made
me a bit of money this year (tks Tony):
(Gives table of results)
TinHead, on average, when the tip is correct, is
13 points under. If he tips Brisbane to win by 20,
then on average, Brisbane will win by 33 points. If
the line is10 pts, then you have a 23 pt margin. Based
on 3 years data, roughly, if you follow the 10 pt
rule, you will win 75% of the time at 1.90. And at
that, you will consistently make money.
Using Sportsbet, I add a few points to this and as
you can see, won 81% of the time at 1.65 for 23% profit
on turnover. For every 1,000 aud bet, I made 230 aud.
Because I add a few pts, my result is consistent with
Tony's 33% POT.
You need to be careful on the other side of the bet...
if the losing side loses, then they can tend to give
it away and lose by a lot. Hence, the negative bet
has more risk. I won't explain it in detail, just
see the attached histogram - it is not normal, and
by that I mean statisically normal.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 15 September 2004 7:48 PM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] Week 3
I've used the 10 point rule all year, so I believe
I am well placed to comment.
Where a team's line is more than 10 points greater
than Tinhead's recommended margin I have a bet. This
approach returned over 33% profit on turnover for
the season using half kelly betting.
Examples - if Tinhead predicts Brisbane to win by
1 point then I would back the opposition if they had
11.5 points head start. If Tinhead predicted Brisbane
to win by 50 points I would back them if they had
to give away 39.5 points head start.
The reason why I use this approach is when a team
are the underdog you get a head start (as Geelong
will be this weekend) and when they are favourites
although you give away the start, short priced favourites
generally give away 20-30 points and most of the season
they won by 50 or more.
I posted a spreadsheet with the year's results a
few weeks ago and I suggest you look at it as the
returns have been great - many many times the cost
of the subscription.
Regards, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 31 August 2004 8:38 PM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] Another good year
Hi Glenn.
I don't think your results were all that much different,
if we compare like with like:
282% H2H, Full Kelly, Const Bank, Favs Only
817% H2H, Full Kelly, Const Bank, All Overlays
515% Lines, Full Kelly, Const Bank, All Overlays
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 30 August 2004 7:46 PM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] Rd 22
Hi guys.
Have just joined the tipping service and dabbled
my feet with Geelong at the line of -28.5 for a nice
first off collect. Will get a bit more courageous
in weeks to come.
Also agree with the comment on Global, but have found
IAS quite competitive also.
Chris.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 29 August 2004 10:58 PM
Subject: [afl_list] Another good year
Well, another good year. I have just had a look at
the results -TinHead has been consistent with 117,
117 and 119 picks over the past 3 years.
My overall return was 15.7% Profit on Turnover, now
averaging 12.4% over the past 3 years. All of the
systems did well as shown below.
(Gives table)
Max, I did a rough calculation on my bank increase.
For the Kelly system (Favs >57.5%, plus some other
rules), the increase was 210% and for the Home Favourites,
270%.
My records on Margins and Lines is not that good,
but was around 320%. Nowhere near what you got, so
next year I might become more adventurous?
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 12 August 2004 2:41 PM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] seminars
I'll second that... it was well worth the trip from
Sydney. Good to meet Steve and the others too.
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 12 August 2004 12:40 PM
Subject: [afl_list] seminars
All members,
I would like to thank Steve Clarke and his crew at
Swinburne for his statistical seminars held on Friday
August the 6th. They were both interesting and informative
and well worth attending. A good day was had by all
that attended.
Once again many thanks and well done!
Regards, Denis.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 1 August 2004 8:22 PM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] 10 Point Rule and Half Kelly
Max,
Very impressive results. I did a comparison (as close
as I could) for my 3 systems,
Full Kelly betting. Kelly (>57.5%>0% overlays), bank
increase of 80%
Home Favourites (>57.5%,>0+7.5% overlays), bank increase
of 217%
Margins and Lines, increase of 31%
For the last 2, I just started that at Rd 10 and
11, so I am just refining things, but I like Tony's
approach with the lines.
For this year, running at 13.1% Profit on Turnover.
This tells me that for every $1,000 of bank, it has
increased to $5,780. Great result.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 29 July 2004 1:19 AM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] 10 Point Rule and Half Kelly
Tony,
Impressive results and accords with all the data
that I have. For example: Select if line is 10 pts
below TH. Lets say TH selects 20 pts. You bet if the
line is 10 pts. TH is normally average 13 pts under
when the selection is correct. So, if correct, the
win is 33 pts and the line is 10 pts. That is a 23
pt margin.
From my data over the last 3 years, that margin gives
a 92% chance of a win. Given that TH gets about 67%
right, then you would expect a win ratio of 62%. Win
ratio here is 69%, a bit better than what I'd expect,
but certainly in the ballpark. By the way, win ratio
of 69% at 1.90 gives a 33% POT. Wallah!!
There is the little complication that there are non-favourites
in there, but interestingly, all bets on the non-favourites
won! Also, home sides won 63% and away sides won 73%,
opposite of the general results. Strange, I wonder
why?
Anyway, I think that you are onto a winner here.
So much so that in fact that I am looking for opportunities:
I bet StKilda -7.5 vs. Essendon at SportOdds at 1.62.
An average price of 1.61 will break-even, so I will
try to stay above that. Anyway, lets see how that
works. Apart from Bris vs. Rich and Adel vs. Freo,
they have all been good. I get a bit cautious on the
non-favourites as if the winners win, then they can
run away with it.
Good stuff, thanks.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 25 July 2004 9:57 PM
Subject: [afl_list] 10 Point Rule and Half Kelly
Ok, I've zapped up a spreadsheet using the "10 point
rule" (where the bookies differ with their 1.90 margin
by more than 10 points from Tinhead).
An impressive set of results for 2004 too. The starting
bank almost 350% greater than in March. A couple of
things to note:
1) If there were two concurrent games the half kelly
bet is based on the bank before either game started.
However whenever possible a most up to date bank was
used (eg. if there were bets on the Saturday day and
night the night bet was based on the bank AFTER the
result of the day match).
2) Some margins may not have been commonly available
(eg. I may have taken -10.5 but they changed to -12.5
soon after)
3) There could be human error in here as it was a
completely manual process for all matches for 2004.
4) 1.90 was used for all prices, however I do know
a number of cases where slightly better was available
(eg. 1.92).
5) Minor point - but the Melbourne HOME game played
in Brisbane shows as an away game in my spreadsheet.
6) If the first two rounds were ignored the profit
would be substantially higher as there were 5 losses
and 1 win in that stretch (I recall the Ozmium soccer
package suggesting no bets until a few rounds had
been played so maybe this is something prudent here
too).
7) I've started with a nominal $5,000 bank.
Hope this info assists with your punting future.
I know I will continue to plunder based on the 42
bets this year and a healthy 30% POT.
Long live Tinhead.
Cheers, Tony.
(Tony's data is available upon request. E-mail
guywest_at_ozmium_dot_com_dot_au and ask for "margin bets 2004
10 points" spreadsheet.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 26 July 2004 10:08 AM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] 10 Point Rule and Half Kelly
FWIW, I've been been using a Full Kelly on Lines
(Constant Bank) since R10. Including rounds 1-9, profit
is 446% - see "Lines All" below. However, "H2H All"
is in front, at 578% profit (Head-to-head, Full Kelly,
Constant Bank). The 3 banks I'm actually running are
the H2H All, Lines All, and H2H Fav (Favs only, Full
Kelly, Constant Bank).
Cheers, Max.
(I'll try and get a copy of Max's chart to add
to the AFL section, it's quite impressive. Editor.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 25 July 2004 8:03 PM
Subject: [afl_list] Lines and Margins
Tony, Yes, I've had a dabble at the lines and margins
since Round 11. 11 wins from 14 bets. I also use SportOdds
to select my own lines sometimes. And, I add a bit
of margin eg. I went to put a Port Adelaide bet on
for -25.5 at 1.53, but they withdrew the lines about
20 mins before the start of the game, so missed out!
The stats that I have run suggest that you will make
money on this using TinHead numbers. When he is right
(ie picks the win), he is generally about 13 pts below
the actual score. I put a small bank in, and it is
doing well.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 25 July 2004 5:48 PM
Subject: RE: [afl_list] Round 17 conjecture
Yep, fantastic round, only lost a small amount on
the Port line (they would have been in big trouble
had the Eagles accuracy been a bit better!) Second
best round ever, closely following R3 where we had
a great score on Geelong at $2.20 with a big overlay.
Glenn, I agree that it's certainly time to think
very seriously about profit protection. It still only
needs 1-2 bad rounds to wipe out most of your profit
- or even send you into a loss! I'm using the constant
bank this year, which in effect is a method of protection
(last year I used full bank, and went into loss at
R19). Other methods could be to cut down the Full
Kelly if you're using it, to half or quarter etc.
Or just cut down your bank etc, depending on your
wagering method and preferences.
Some newbies make the mistake of considering their
profits as "the bookies money" - do that, and it will
end up their money! Your profits are cash in your
pocket. Best thing a newbie could perhaps do is withdraws
all their profits, and stick them into their bank
account or pay off some bills. That's when they'll
realise it's now their cash. Then decide if they are
going to pull it all back out for some "do or die"
"broke or rich" splurge.
Cheers, Max
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 25 July 2004 5:34 PM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] Round 17 conjecture
Hi Glenn.
The 10 point rule not quite good enough for every
bet this weekend with Port not covering the line.
Got Kangaroos, Collingwood and Geelong though, so
a nice weekend indeed. I'm very keen to get the bookies
lines for Rounds 1 through to the Round 10 inclusive
as I have kept records since Round 10 and have more
then trebled my bank since then. With only 21 bets
it is too small a sample to be putting up a huge bank,
however if similar results can be drawn from 40 odd
bets I'd be more comfortable sharing my thoughts.
16 winners and 5 losers for the 10 point rule since
Round 11. Although Port disappointed me a big increase
on my original bank this weekend is nothing to sneeze
at. 8 from 8 in the tipping too means I didn't lose
any more ground. Anybody who has the bookies lines
(for the 1.90 bet) for the first 10 rounds and who
is willing to share it?
Cheers, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 25 July 2004 4:41 PM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] Round 17 conjecture
Wow, what a week. Kelly, home favourites and lines
all came in (well, just about). That has well and
truly restored the balances, now to think about profit
protection for the year?
Pity, should have followed Guy's suggestion, the
multi would have paid about $5.67 - maybe not enough
to entice me into going for the whole 8 though.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 18 June 2004 4:51 AM
Subject: Re: [afl_list] Saints
As a lot of you know I follow the +10 line rule every
single week and am having a very successful 2004 season.
I will be on the Saints in a big way this week. My
opinion or logic (which doesn't count for much).
1) Last week St Kilda were back to Melbourne after
a hard road trip to Sydney
2) Both Sydney and the Saints were "flat" last week
indicating that the big match may have taken more
out of each team than first thought
3) Hawthorn had been revved up by all the publicity
last week and performed admirably (close but no cigar).
They will probably return to their horrible selves
again this week.
4) A close loss to Carlton doesn't rate highly in
my book (Carlton winning a few but against ordinary
opposition)
5) Two losses will be enough to inspire the Saints
again
6) Unlike Essendon, close wins are not enough for
the Saints. 100 point margins are something they strive
for.
Not forgetting that two weeks ago the bookies were
running prices on "will St Kilda remain undefeated"
this week they are running prices on "will Hawthorn
win another match". IMHO 41.5 points (or seven goals)
is probably one of the better line bets I have seen
all year.
Regards, Tony.
(Tony was right. Editor.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 7 June 2004 9:39 AM
Subject: Round 11
Hi all. Had a smashing weekend!
Using the H2H Kelly Favourites, bets on Lions, Kangas
and Cats increased the bank by well over 30%.
The H2H Kelly All Overlays were spectacular with
55%+ profit.
Small losses on underdogs Eagles and Hawks were well
offset by the Blues who I had at $7, while the 3 favourites
Bris, Roos and Cats pushed it further ahead. The Demons
came through as well, and at $3.05 were the topping
on the cake.
The only match I didn't bet on was the Swans versus
the Saints, as neither produced an overlay.
In the Lines Kelly, all but the Hawks made it within
the points for 70%+ profit!
For me that's two great rounds in a row, and at half
way through the season, it's been a stunner!
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 8 June 2004 3:51 PM
Subject: Benchmarks
Hi Glenn.
When I started in 2002, I decided to bet only on
favourites that had an overlay, but since then I've
also seen some value in betting on the underdogs.
When the favourites bomb out, the underdogs return
some very good compensation.
Last round I had small losses on Eagles and Hawks,
but made a "killing" on Carlton at $7.00 and Melb
at $3.05.
The bank where I bet on all overlays (favs and underdogs)
is up by about 366%, of which about 120% came from
the underdogs. And of course, the bets on underdogs
are a lot smaller than on the favourites, because
the overlay is determined by the probability of a
win, as well as the price available.
I doubt that I'll ever find one system suited to
all seasons. At the moment, I'm concentrating on reducing
risk, but I have lots more studying to do yet!
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 19 June 2004 4:46 PM
Subject: Cats Win
Yahoo!
Another top result for Tinhead.
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 7 June 2004 10:23 PM
Subject: RE: Round 11
Hi.
Well on the northern hemisphere "we" had Bris, Kangas,
Geelong and (the early warning from Pinnacle) Melbourne,
so no complaints from my side of the globe.
BR, Jorgen.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 7 June 2004 1:58 PM
Subject: Re: Round 11
Hi Max.
Same here. The Kelly Favs had Brisbane, Kangas and
Geelong. The Home Favs had Brisbane and Kangas. I
put a few rules around Tony's 10 pt and took Brisbane
and Geelong at the line. Had a dabble on Hawks, but
kept away from Freo/Melb.
I have had a look at overlays on Non-favs, but cannot
see any long term value in consistent betting. From
the analysis for 2 1/2 seasons, have refined the criteria,
now it is >57.5% win and >0% overlays. My bank increased
about 8%, but remember that I use a very conservative
bank strategy (maybe keeping too much in reserve).
A very good year so far as well, with profits from
this half-year already more than 02 and 03 combined.
But, I have won the last 6/7 weeks. Long term average
is 2/3, so beware the next 2 weeks (and a Round 19)!
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 2 June 2004 1:38 AM
Subject: Benchmarks
Max,
I was looking for some benchmarks to compare against.
I had a look at my bank increase this year, and my
Kelly favourites is up 53%, but this is confused by
the fact that I only ever bet 30% or so of the bank.
My Others (lines, multi's etc) is up 117%, but the
bank is smaller.
The numbers get confused by the bank size and how
conservative you want to be by putting stuff aside
to avoid a wipe-out. But it is hard to compare bank
increase. Friend of mine is into racing, and said
that professional punters are doing ok if they are
returning between 8-12% profit on turnover. So far
this year I am 15.6%. Does anyone have any other performance
data? I just wonder if I am too conservative?
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 31 May 2004 9:56 PM
Subject: RE: Home Favs bets this week and warning
Hi Guy, all.
Like most, I did very well this weekend, and so
far I'm having a terrific season, although I know
only too well that sooner or later there will probably
be a black run. Then I hope that changes I've made
will help protect profits to a degree. Main bank (Constant
Kelly Favourites) is up some 130%, while second bank
(Constant Kelly All) is up 250%. Third bank - started
only this last round - is a "Constant Kelly Line All"
(constant bank, kelly method, line betting, all overlays
both favs and underdogs). This of course is based
on the calcs that Steve provided us with for determining
the overlay for a given line, and it's had a very
lucky start, showing 55% profit from one round! Those
that were with us last year know only too well that
when we see the dark side, much of those profits could
evaporate - and quite possibly a big chunk of the
bank as well. That's when any system you use will
be taxed to the max!
You'll remember I'm a big fan of the Full Monty -
the most significant change to my system for this
season was a change from using Full Bank to a Constant
Bank. This was implemented to reduce volatility, and
to minimise the damage when we hit the dark side.
Don't mean to be a wet blanket, but thought I'd throw
in that reminder for those who joined us this year.
But hey, so far this season has been an absolute ripper!
Long may it last!
Cheers, Max.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 31 May 2004 9:31 PM
Subject: Re: GUY's AFL suggestions
Yes Guy , excellent selections this week.. Just added
to the best weekend I've ever had on AFL... It's almost
come to the point, where I hang out for your selections
rather than that of Tinheads.
But having chickened out on the Lions Index (as
I'd had so much on them otherways, my stomach was
churning 20 mins before kick off), but still scraped
in the 40+ ($6), and all my Swans/Lions hook ups (ML,
Pts, 24+), if only the Swans had also collected the
40+ I would have saluted a 30/1 double for $500. Ah
well, I guess that's just being greedy.
Looking forward to this weeks over/unders, as I would
be playing it very quietly, not wanting to give back
too much from this week.
Ajax.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 31 May 2004 8:05 PM
Subject: GUY's AFL suggestions
Guy - nice set of margin overs/unders last round.
Hope you're able to keep posting them on the list.
Glenn's Tinhead 5%/55% worked well too.
Regards, Bob
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 31 May 2004 1:32 AM
Subject: Home Favs bets this week and warning
Great week. The fav's betting is off to a good start
with 4/5 and the bank going from 1,000 to 1,381 (My
betting bank was 70% of the bank, which turned out
to be almost the whole bank anyway). I ended up taking
Brisbane based on comments from the group. Thanks.
Kelly was good also, 3/3.
Guy made a comment about high overlays in a recent
post, and I have said that "Also, I have commented
that as the overlay gets bigger, then the probability
of winning goes down; the "they" must know something
TinHead does not know theory: eg. Brisbane last Saturday."
Looking at the high overlays for home teams 2002-04
(>20% and for win chance >57.5%), then the home teams
are 14 for 19 for 73.7% win ratio, and most of the
odds were 1.80+ into the 2$ range. Seems that high
overlays that lose are mainly away teams.
This week gave the bank a healthy boost, and now
running at 15.6% POT for '04.
Glenn.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 29 April 2004 11:45 AM
Subject: RE: Points tipping:
Re: Possible good bets this weekend. As mentioned
a few weeks ago in this forum, the POT for this Tinhead
+10 point system over the past few years is showing
about 10% .... better than a good kick up the pants.
The Tinhead + 20 point margin bets are especially
profitable and qualify as "super specials", albeit
there don't tend to be many of these in a season.
Irakli.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 3 April 2004 7:17 AM
Subject: RE: Challenge
Great start to the weekend from Tennis/NRL Tony
and "King of the Roughies" Guy.
AFL Not everyday one is given a 15/1 winner that
wins by the length of the straight (or at least 19
points).
NRL Tony home with his "certain" 2.5% winner to kick
start the kitty for the weekend tennis. Tony adds
the icing to the cake with Weiner coming come overnight.
What more can one ask for ..... only the AFL list
but winners galore in NRL and tennis ... should encourage
more cross fertilisation with benefits to everyone.
Bring on Collingwood ... $ 1.62 at Norm Short looks
the best.
Irakli.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 28 March 2004 12:26 AM
Subject: Last word?
Re: Money Managment strategies...forum input appreciated.
Pat is in Melbourne, and I have had a pleasant evening
listening to the footy, reading Stefan's paper (from
the Swinburne site) and having the odd drop of grape
juice! For those of you who have read all the recent
mails, you need to be careful that I am not maximizing
profits. I operate in a particular spectrum of betting
possibilities, one that is comfortable for me. I do
not back TinHead's non-favourites, and scale down
bets when the overlay's get >15-20% (since the probability
of them winning reduces). Why do I do this? Because
I prefer to use the data to make consistent money
by winning more frequently. I do this by aiming for
>70% wins and >1.50 average return, and do this by
targeting >55% and > 5% overlay.
As Stefan's paper shows, I am not maximizing profits,
and as Guy and others have pointed out, I leave money
on the table by not having a go at good overlays when
the chance of a win is, say, 40%. Steve and TinHead
get it wrong 30% of the time, so there are chances
that the 40% probability team will win, and win at
a 3$ price. You can probably do better than me: getting
it 50% right at the price of 2.20 will give you a
10% POT. (Or 40% at 3.00 will give you 20%). The difference
is that you have greater losing streaks, something
my personality wants to avoid.
Anyway, I enjoyed reading Stefan's paper...made me
think some more. I'm comfortable that I can consistently
make money now, and am comfortable putting big bets
on and not worrying about it if it loses. This is
the 3rd season, so it does take some time for initial
non-bettors, and ones that do not like losing money!!
This is a fairly efficient market, so taking "candy
from the baby" is not on. However, my actual return
based on my bank in 2003 (tough year) was almost 25%.
In the big scheme of things, not bad, if the risk
is manageable, which I believe it is.
To do well here takes a little dedication, and some
discipline. What I have talked about suits me, but
is by no means the optimum. Listen to the fund managers:
risk tolerance! That's enough........the balcony and
another red beckon!
Glenn.
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