Nice try ...
Go to your favourite search engine
and type in 'Lotto Australia'. You will hit thousands
of pages offering products and advice about Lotto.
Typically these pages are full of psuedo-scientific
jargon and erroneous statements invoking mathematics
and probability theory.
This section of Smartgambler will
feature some of the websites promoting dubious mystical,
magical and supposed 'mathematical' solutions to the
age old problem of trying to get blood out of a stone,
the answer to which is also age old, you can't.
We are always on the lookout for
new material so if you have recently seen a particularly
bad (or perhaps good) Lotto site, please tell us about
it via the 'Contact us' link on the left hand sidebar.
Here are some examples of the genre. Bear in mind that
these aren't just suggestions from well meaning Lotto
enthusiasts, these people want you to actually pay them
for their 'winning' systems.
"To be effective on a winning percentage basis you
must begin playing with more than 12 numbers in a Lotto draw. By playing with
up to 40 numbers you can be assured of winning (making a tidy profit) almost
every draw." - www.lottonet.com.au
Smartgambler readers should know
or guess the obvious formula: if you win more frequently,
then, when you do lose, you lose more. You can't cheat
the odds, no matter how you rearrange them. In Australia
you are stuck with an approximate 60% return on your
Lotto games. Note the small word 'almost' in the spurious
claim above. That's the killer! It's like backing
8 horses out of 10 in a race, you'll usually win a
bit, but occasionally you'll lose a lot. Overall you'll
lose more than you win and that's the bottom line.
O.W.N. SMARTPICK SOFTWARE
SmartPick is number selection software based on Chaos
Theory. The members' version additionally utilises
Probability Theory to make number selections that
are based on Number Frequency or Number Last Drawn
data. The members version also allows control of the
initial level of CHAOS used to make number selections.
My adaptation of Chaos Theory comes from the idea
that "Chaos theory investigates a system by asking
about the general character of its long-term behaviour."
(Kellert, Stephen. In the Wake of Chaos: Unpredictable
Order in Synamical Systems. Chicago, Ill.: The University
of Chicago Press. 1993. P. 3) By drawing upon historical
lotto data and applying chaotic behaviour principles
I have created SmartPick. www.ownbet.com
Who are they trying to kid? It might
as well say, "Based on hyper dynamic, quasi semi
regular, super scientific, post arithmetic postulates"
or some such nonsensical verbiage. The fact that it
uses historical data destroys credibility at once
because chance has no memory. You are just paying
someone to produce random numbers for you.
Submitted by BT: 20-4-2001 by e-mail
"If you want to look at a dubious lotto scheme, check
out the Syndicate Club, www.syndicateclub.com.au/ located in Queensland. This
is a multi level marketing scheme. The hook is the operators guarantee you the
6th winning number, because they add every other number to the 5 your syndicate
group plays.
The reason it's so dubious in my opinion is because only a small part of
the money you put in goes to buying tickets. Something like 66% of the input
funds goes into front and downline bonuses and the administrators retain some
money too. In this scheme, you get paid for recruiting people. In my book, that's
a pyramid operation and should possibly even be illegal.
The hook and promise of getting the 6th number for sure means little because
most players have Buckley's chance of getting the first 5 to begin with."
In fairness to the Syndicate Club, since publishing
the letter above we have received a detailed defence
of the club from a supposed member who thinks it is
"a marvellous way to play" and denies that
it is a pyramid scheme. This must count for something,
but the Syndicate Club did make it onto the list of
dodgy schemes published by the SA Office of Consumer
and Business Affairs for a while and an internet search
turns up some rather unflattering material. We subsequently
received an abusive e-mail from someone with an interest
in the business, which was dealt with in our September
2002 editorial.
Summary
The 'systems' that people try and
sell usually fall into two broad categories:
1. Reduction Systems, based on 'special' arrangements of numbers.
2. Random Number Generators. These purport to be 'better' than
your own selections, usually because of irrelevant historical information or
other spurious details.
Neither of these methods has any
mathematical validity. Your percentage return will
always remain the same. Reduction systems, particularly,
require large outlays of money and make claims like
'winning more often'. This may well be true, but winning
'more often' doesn't actually mean that you'll win
overall. Outlaying $100 a week and getting twelve
$5 wins is 'winning more often' than winning six $10
bets, but they both return $60 or 60%.
Coming out $10 ahead for six weeks
and then losing the entire $100 outlay in the seventh
week is also winning 'often', but the loss, when it
inevitably occurs, brings the so called winnings back
to earth with a thud. The reality is that Lotto games
will give you back, on average, about 60c for every
dollar you put in. Not good value as a gambling proposition.
Fine for a nice dream, if you don't pay too much and
you know what you are paying for.
As suggested on a previous page,
if you really must play Lotto of any kind, keep your
outlay to a minimum and try and guess numbers that
will be unpopular due to their insignificance, as
opposed to ones that many other people are likely
to also choose. It has been suggested that choosing
numbers over 31 is a logical idea because it cuts
out all the people who use the dates of birthdays
as potential co-winners and means if you do happen
to win you will hopefully keep more of the prize to
yourself.
This of course nowhere near compensates for the horrible average
return of only around 60%, the worst gambling activity you can choose in Australia
by a long margin.
And finally, please don't buy any snake-oil "systems"
to try and alter that fact!
You can find useful resources
on the internet that deal with lotto products regarded
as being of a dubious nature. State offices of business
and consumer affairs are often a good place to start
for Australian readers.
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