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Comments on Kelly staking system.
E-mail on the dangers of overly aggressive staking, sent to AFL insiders
group, July 2002.
If you have a bank of only $100, use Full Kelly. If you have any sized bank
where it can hurt losing it, you need to take a far more conservative approach.
If you asked Professor Kelly, he'd agree. The formula wasn't designed for betting,
believe it or not. From all you read here, (referring to the AFL 'insiders'
mailing list) you'd think it was specifically designed for betting on AFL
matches! He designed it to solve an engineering problem many years ago without
any regard for risk as I understand it. He didn't have to consider risk, as
it was an engineering problem that involved no concept of risk. Betting involves
risk as it's main ingredient, which is why the Full Kelly formula is totally
useless in betting.
Don't be fooled by it. At various points in the season, you will see outstanding
returns using Full Kelly. However, the same number of times you will also see
outstanding losses.
I track the Swinburne ratings fairly closely. The last bad round for the tips
was way back in round 9. Rounds 10 -16 have seen the ratings equal to or better
than the bookies prices each week. Round 17 was poor. But again, a relatively
good record over many weeks.
'Kafelnikov'.
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