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Managing a losing streak.
By Nolan Dalla. July 2002.
(Reprinted unedited by permission of top rate gambling site madjacksports.com)
PART ONE: "WHEN GOOD HANDICAPPERS GO BAD"
The chance that you will experience a losing streak increases --
the longer you play
the more games you play
In other words, as the TIME FRAME, and FREQUENCY of your wagers increases exponentially,
a losing streak becomes more and more inevitable.
Agreed? Of course, you agree. Otherwise, go back and read the first part again.
And again.
For example, if you bet just one game per day for the next two weeks, it's
unlikely you will encounter a severe losing streak -- which is defined as a
inordinate number of losses within a given time frame. Based on 14 total plays
in a two-week period, most bettors will win or lose between 5 and 9 games. In
fact, about 85 percent of all bettors will go 5-9, 6-8, 7-7, 8-6, or 9-5. A
smaller percentage will go either 10-4 or 4-10. A much smaller percentage will
go 11-3 or 3-11. And the fractions are miniscule for going 2-12, 12-2, 1-13,
and 13-1. For any bettor -- no matter how good or how bad -- to go either 0-14
or 14-0 is less than one-tenth of a percentage point. Picture a bell curve.
That's explains the distribution of wins and losses based on probability.
All handicappers, no matter how skilled or experienced they are, encounter
losing cycles. The question isn't so much "if" it will happen, but
"when" it will happen. Although professional and semi-professional
sports handicappers understand these cycles and are forced to accept the inevitability
of losses, it doesn't make things any easier when we are in the midst of a bad
run. Our deeper understanding of the laws of mathematics and probability only
seems to compound our frustrations.
So, what are the chances that you (or I) will encounter a losing streak? Let's
look at the likelihood of a losing streak occurring within a one-year period.
I, Nolan Dalla, will serve as the model in this experiment, since my wins and
losses are documented publicly on this forum and are probably consistent with
the approximate number of wagers each of you makes within a 365-day period.
In other words, some bettors will make less than 500 wagers. And others will
make far more than 500 wagers. But "500" appears to be a reasonable
figure, which equates to an average of 1.38 wagers per day.
As stated previously, I expect to make approximately 500 wagers this year.
This breaks down by sport, as follows: NFL (160); XFL (9); NBA (121 pending
playoffs); NCAA Basketball (20); Baseball (175 estimated); Other (5)
Based on 500 flat bets between September 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001, here
are the odds that the following will occur, given that each wager is a 50-50
proposition:
THE NUMBER OF "TIMES" DURING THE NEXT 500 PLAYS THAT THE FOLLOWING
WILL OCCUR…..
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 2 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 124.75
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 62.25
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 4 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 31.06
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 5 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 15.05
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 6 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 7.73
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 7 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 3.86
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 8 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 1.93
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 9 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: .96
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 10 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: .48
THE ODDS THAT THE FOLLOWING WILL OCCUR (BASED ON 500 PLAYS)…..
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 2 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 100 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 100 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 4 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 100 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 5 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 100 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 6 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 98 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 7 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 86 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 8 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 62 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 9 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 39 percent
-- I WILL LOSE AT LEAST 10 CONSECUTIVE GAMES: 21 percent
COMMENTS: As you can see from the regression, it is a virtual certainty that
we will have extended losing cycles. There is a very good chance we will lose
6, 7, or even as many as 8 games in a row. In fact, the odds that you will lose
more than 8 consecutive games in 500-game stretch is better than 60 percent.
Hence, if we place all the handicappers at MadJacks into a very large room (or
a stadium) -- more than half of the handicappers will be pulling their hair
out at some point during the season wondering what in the hell they are doing
wrong. Surprise! The answer may (or may not be) -- nothing at all!
What a novel concept! You can be a good handicapper, but might lose EIGHT GAMES
IN A ROW! Want to dispute this? Go ahead. Argue with the laws of mathematics.
You'll lose every time.
So, for those of you who think that you can coattail 500 picks in a season
and NOT lose 6 in a row, I have some beachfront property in Arizona that I will
make you a helluva' deal on. I mean cheap!
Now, let's get serious.
One point related to the chart above: I question the fact that it's a "given"
that almost every handicapper will lose at least 5 games in a row during a 500-game
run. That number appears way to high in my estimation. However, it is the result
of solid mathematical analysis. My opinion is purely subjective and I am not
qualified to dispute the figures. See below for a more detailed explanation
of the math formula(s) that were used to make these calculations.
Note that these percentages (above) are not given in order justify my losses
nor to make excuses for my poor performance. I will have more to say about this
topic in subsequent reports, which I hope will serve as a learning tool for
us all. However, these percentages do PROVE the inevitability of losing cycles
occurring within a broad time frame and large pool of games.. How we chose to
deal with these losing streaks is often what separates long-term winners from
losers in sports gambling.
Next topic.
What about the chances of a winning handicapper suffering a losing streak?
The aforementioned chart assumes the handicapper will hit 50 percent of his/her
plays. What about a handicapper that hits 53 percent, or 55 percent, or even
60 percent? What are the chances they will also experience a losing streak?
Let's find out:
If you get 51 percent of your games right in the long run, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 1.0
6 .98
7 .83
8 .57
9 .34
10 .18
COMMENTS: This means that it is 100 percent certain that you will lose between
1-5 games in a row, then 98 percent for 6 consecutive games; 83 percent for
7 consecutive games; 57 percent for 8 consecutive games; 34 percent for 9 consecutive
games; and 18 percent for 10 consecutive games.
If you pick 52 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 1.0
6 .97
7 .79
8 .52
9 .29
10 .15
If you pick 53 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 1.0
6 .95
7 .74
8 .47
9 .26
10 .13
If you pick 54 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 1.0
6 .93
7 .70
8 .42
9 .22
10 .11
COMMENTS: So, even a "wining player (defined as a handicapper that picks
52.38 percent of winners correctly)" will lose 5 games in a row at least
once a year.
If you pick 55 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 1.0
6 .90
7 .64
8 .37
9 .19
10 .09
If you pick 56 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 .99
6 .87
7 .59
8 .32
9 .15
10 .07
If you pick 57 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 .99
6 .84
7 .54
8 .28
9 .13
10 .06
If you pick 58 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 .98
6 .79
7 .49
8 .24
9 .11
10 .05
If you pick 59 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 .97
6 .76
7 .44
8 .21
9 .09
10 .04
If you pick 60 percent winners, then:
2 1.0
3 1.0
4 1.0
5 .96
6 .71
7 .39
8 .18
9 .07
10 .03
COMMENTS: Anyone that picks 60+ percent of games correctly at the 500 game
mark is either a fraud of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. So, I’ll stop
with the comparisons at this point. But as you can see from the final chart,
even a phenomenal handicapper will lose 6 straight in about 71 percent of each
500-game brackets.
All of these statistics DO NOT mean that you should ignore losses or disregard
losing streaks. To the contrary, there may indeed be problems with your methodology
or the factors you apply in handicapping. In Part 2, I will discuss your options
when encountering a losing streak.
PART 2: "HOW TO SURVIVE"
As we discussed in Part 1, a losing streak becomes more likely: (a) the longer
you play, and (b) the more games you play. Since losing cycles are something
we all must confront as sports handicappers, the question then becomes "how
do we deal with it?"
Sports gamblers who are prepared to take losses, both emotionally and financially,
have a much better chance of overcoming downswings. However, most sports gamblers
are ill prepared for the inevitable fall when it comes. When times of tribulation
arrive, panic sets in and they don't know what to do.
Let's carefully examine several options. Let's say you've just lost several
games in a row and are now coming to the end of the regular season. Your options
are as follows:
OPTION 1: "QUIT BETTING SPORTS"
Believe it or not, there are some gamblers who quit betting sports after they
encounter a severe losing streak. They decide that betting sports just isn't
profitable and they either gravitate to other games of chance, or totally quit
gambling altogether. This group is usually comprised of beginning or novice
gamblers who are not accustomed to the vicious swings of the sports gambling
business and who are unfamiliar with the laws of probability (see previous report
which sets the record quite clear). Their plight is often worsened by bad money
management practices -- such as chasing losses or using foolish progressive
betting systems. Many of these gamblers are also victims of tout services. They
usually end up broke or owing bookies large sums of money. Then, they spend
the rest of their lives complaining "you can win gambling/sports betting"
and chastise anyone who thinks otherwise. After all -- if they couldn't beat
the game, no one can. Some of these malcontents even become sports gambling's
worst critics in other ventures (such as Larry King, Skip Bayless, et al.).
They couldn't cut it betting sports in their earlier days so they became critical/jealous
of those who were successful. Another bad sports gambler, who shall remain nameless,
became the head of the New Jersey Council on Problem Gambling. He ruined his
early life gambling on sports and horses and now preaches against all legalized
sports gambling at every level as one of its most ardent critics. Sadly, most
of these novices fail to take responsibility for their actions, and fail to
understand that consecutive losses are natural part of the random cycle of events.
Compounding their plight, they were probably bad handicappers (or worse, compulsive
gamblers as was the case with Larry King), but their losses were certainly exacerbated
by their own stupidity. They lost because of (a) bad methodology, (b) poor money
management practices -- or (c) usually both. If you decide to quit betting sports,
that's fine. But don't malign what is for many of us both an art and a science.
Keep your mouth shut and enjoy doing something else. Good riddance.
OPTION 2: "TAKE A BREAK FROM BETTING SPORTS"
I recommend taking a break when either of the following occurs:
(1) Losses start to disturb you emotionally, or
Losses begin to hurt you financially.
Of course, no one likes to lose. But, we do accept losing as part of gambling.
What sets a losing streak apart from "acceptable" losses and losing
cycles is the destruction of personal confidence inherent in the streak. For
example, let's say you've just suffered your fourth losing night in a row betting
college basketball games. The idea of going back to the grind of doing research
and analysis the next day after going 1-9 the last ten games is nauseating.
The solution is to take a few days off and regroup -- both physically and emotionally.
After all, if you shoot a double-bogey the final 6 holes during a round of golf,
the last thing you should probably do is go out and play another 18-holes. That
would only reinforce negative habits and destroy confidence. Take a break. Come
back tomorrow. When you return back to action, you will be in a better frame
of mind and will be able to analyze games with a clear vision and purpose. You
may even want to use the "down time" to experiment with other trends,
factors, betting systems, go back and review past performance results (via the
Internet), or watch games purely for the sake of gaining information. Then again,
you might want to just take a break from sports for a few days and go see a
movie. That's fine too.
OPTION 3 "CHANGE SPORTS"
This is a viable alternative you should consider when there are multiple sports
being played during various times of the year -- and you have been consistently
following more than one sport. However, unless you have current knowledge of
other sports, this is not advisable. I even advise against playing more than
one sport at the same time -- assuming you are doing your own handicapping --
because no one that I know can seriously follow more than one sport at a time
at an expert level. A bettor that knows the NBA inside and out, but who does
not know hockey would be ill-advised to begin betting on NHL games using his
own analysis. However, for those who are familiar with multiple sports, here
is crossover between sports during the following months:
JANUARY: NFL / NHL / NBA / NCAA Basketball
FEBRUARY: NHL / NBA / NCAA Basketball
MARCH: NHL / NBA / NCAA Basketball
APRIL: NHL / NBA / Baseball
MAY: NHL / NBA / Baseball
JUNE: NHL / NBA / Baseball
JULY: Baseball
AUGUST: Baseball / Pre-Season Football
SEPTEMBER: Baseball / NFL / NCAA Football
OCTOBER: Baseball / NFL / NCAA Football
NOVEMBER: NFL / NCAA Football / NBA / NHL
DECEMBER. NFL / NCAA Football / NBA / NHL/NCAA Basketball
For instance, if you experience a bad run in the NBA, and have also been following
college basketball and are achieving some measure of handicapping success, it
may be advisable to decrease the amount of time you spend handicapping NBA games
and focus more on college basketball. Go where the money is.
However, there are times of the year when it's not possible to play other sports
(July, for example). During these times, many handicappers (who are non-baseball
enthusiasts) either take a vacation before the NFL begins, while others exhibit
what I call a "bunker mentality." They put everything into handicapping
baseball and ignore everything else. In the past, I have found July to be one
of my most profitable months for this very reason. When faced with no alternatives,
a handicapper can often do his best work. I call "Baseball in July"
the "Manhattan Project" effect. For those who are not history buffs,
when a group of scientists were thrown out into the New Mexico desert in the
mid 1940s, they had nothing else to do but put their collective talents together
and construct the atomic bomb. The Manhattan Project would not have been possible
if the scientists were living in Chicago, or Los Angles, or any other large
city with many distractions. Similarly, when handicappers are forced to put
everything into baseball, combined with the fact there is an influx of casual
money on all the games giving us more varied lines, the results can be impressive.
OPTION 4: "REDUCE THE SIZE AND/OR NUMBER OF WAGERS" If you are convinced
your methodology is solid, you are unlikely to reduce the number of trials that
you use. For example, the NFL regular season runs only 17 weeks. Taking a week
or two off is highly unlikely, since there are only a limited number of plays
that can be made between September and December, which constitutes football
season. But in longer sports seasons such as the NBA or MLB, a reduction in
the number of games you play or the amount you bet should not significantly
affect your season-end results. Unless you have an infinite bankroll, reducing
the size of your wagers during a losing cycle is almost mandatory. Of course,
this runs counter to the novice's approach which is to "press" his
bets in order to recoup losses, which is usually suicidal.
OPTION 5: "INCREASE THE SIZE OR NUMBER OF WAGERS" The only way to
get the money back that you've lost is to play more games and/or bet higher,
right? Wrong! This is, by far, the worst thing you can do. There is no such
thing as "getting even." What's lost is no longer "your"
money. You are starting from this day forward, from the next game forward. The
eight games in a row that you just lost is money that's now gone. It's no longer
yours. The important thing is to focus on winning now, just the next game. Win
one single game. Then, win another. Don’t worry about getting all eight
games back at once. That's not even humanly possible when you are in a the midst
of a severe losing streak. If you are truly skillful, you WILL win eight games
eventually and go way beyond that. So, in retrospect, you WILL get that money
back at some point. But it will take hard work and a certain degree of risk.
On the other hand, if you try to play catch up and starting increasing the size
of your wagers or taking foolish chances you are going to end up busted. Question:
Is there anyone who hasn't committed this, the "Cardinal Sin" or sports
gambling? The smart learn from their mistakes. The dumb repeat them. Often,
over and over.
OPTION 6: "FOLLOW A WINNING HANDICAPPER"
Most sports gamblers that I know like to make their own decisions. They want
to pick their own games. But, there are some sports gamblers who lack the necessary
time or lack the ability to research games for themselves. Therefore, they chose
to coattail the picks of other handicappers. This practice is widespread and
certainly is encouraged at this site. The only downside of abandoning your own
handicapping in lieu of others is that it will not enable you to develop your
own skills and approaches to sports handicapping. Furthermore, when the public
handicapper that you follow suffers a losing streak, the loss is usually unexpected
and perhaps quit costly. The professionals aren't supposed to lose eight games
in a row, right? (See previous report once again, for a discussion of this topic).
I consider this approach merely a temporary solution. Since no public handicapper
will be around forever, it is best that you try at least to develop some sense
of the concepts that are used by successful handicappers.
In Part 3, we'll discuss the reasons why you (or I) may be experiencing a losing
streak.
PART 3: "WHY NEGATIVE STREAKS HAPPEN"
As we discussed in Part 1, a losing streak becomes more likely:
(a) the longer you play, and
(b) the more games you play.
As we discussed in Part 2, there are several ways to stop a losing streak,
or at the very least reduce its negative effects, including:
OPTION 1: "QUIT BETTING SPORTS"
-- Face it, some people are not cut out for this business.
OPTION 2: "TAKE A BREAK FROM BETTING SPORTS"
Recommended when:
-- Losses start to disturb you emotionally, or
-- Losses begin to hurt you financially.
OPTION 3 "CHANGE SPORTS"
Recommended when:
-- There are multiple sports being played, and
-- You have been closely following more than one sport
OPTION 4: "REDUCE THE SIZE AND/OR NUMBER OF WAGERS"
-- Always a good idea when you are losing
OPTION 5: "INCREASE THE SIZE OR NUMBER OF WAGERS"
-- Not recommended! Never try to recoup your losses by wagering higher!
OPTION 6: "FOLLOW A WINNING HANDICAPPER"
-- A temporary, but not long-term, solution to a losing streak. Most sports
bettors want to develop their own methodology and following the picks of others
does not allow you to work out the kinks in your own methodology, which is essential
if you plan to continue sports betting for years to come.
In this, Part 3, we will discuss the reasons why a losing streak may (possibly)
be occurring.
The first thing to remember is that it is mathematically probable (if not certain)
that you WILL suffer a losing streak at some point this season, and/or this
year. So, a losing streak does not necessarily mean you should make any changes
to your handicapping methods. It's possible that your methodology and money
management is based on solid fundamental concepts. Nevertheless, you will still
lose an inordinate number of games within a short time frame based on the laws
of probability.
In this case, you just have ride out the bad streak, as difficult as this may
be. When the approach you are using to handicap games is not working, it takes
great courage to stick with a system. Assuming you have a system that has been
profitable for an inordinate amount of time, you can probably stick with it
and ride out the streak with positive expectation.
By the same token, you must also be aware of rule changes and dynamics that
have altered both professional and college sports in recent years (such as free
agency, guaranteed contracts, and other key issues which influence motivation
and team chemistry). The economic and social changes of sport have begun to
render some handicapping factors obsolete. More on this topic another time.
So, the question is….
SHOULD I CHANGE MY METHODOLOGY WHEN I'M RUNNING BAD?
There are many different methods used to handicap sporting events. In fact,
I've never met any two serious handicappers who used the exact same system (developed
independently). We all have our own way of doing things. This is compounded
by the fact that this is a business that attracts individual thinkers and mavericks
who are not accustomed to listening and taking advice from others (although
this forum is something of an exception and even encourages a communal or team
approach). Some handicappers prioritize trends -- which largely eliminates subjective
judgement and reasoning from the analysis. Others primarily use statistics and
have come to develop prediction models based on numerical values. Power rankings
are a good example of statistical-based methodology. Other handicappers look
closely at individual player mathups and try to predict game results and totals
(I admit to being in this category -- although I weigh other factors, as well).
Others use team history, such as previous results and won-lost records (SU and
ATS). Others handicappers prioritize the emotional and fatigue factors that
are part of every game. Of course, most successful handicappers use some combination
of all these determinants. Deciding WHICH of these are more important from game
to game and from night to night is the real TRICK of successful sports betting.
In short, no technique works all the time. This is why even the best handicappers
only hit about 60 percent of their games.
Which now brings us to the next question….
HOW AND WHY ARE YOU LOSING GAMES?
One way to determine if you methodology is based on solid fundamentals is to
look at THE WAY you are winning or losing games. In the NBA or college basketball,
if you are repeatedly losing games by late baskets or in overtime, you are more
than likely just getting some bad breaks. Although there is really no such thing
as "bad luck" in games of skill (which includes all sporting events)
-- some events cannot be predicted. If a coach decides to pull his starters
off the court and play the reserves in the second half, thus allowing a backdoor
cover for the underdog, there was probably no way to predict this in advance.
Similarly, if you are losing NFL games because of "trash" touchdowns
and unforeseen injuries or turnovers, then it's probably advisable just to stick
with your methodology and forge ahead. I've seen plenty of games where I had
the right side -- say an UNDER where both teams combined for a low-scoring total
in regulation. Then, the game unexpectedly went into overtime, which gave both
teams an extra five minutes to go over the posted number, and lost. We had the
right side. The loss is inconsequential to our methodology. On the other hand,
if you are betting games and consistently losing by double digits, something
is probably wrong with your approach and your research. Sure, you will lose
an occasional game or two by a blowout. But when you are losing a string of
games by very wide margins, it's time to re-examine the system you are using
to handicap games and make some adjustments. No system should be giving you
losers over and over again by wide margins.
EXAMPLE: An example of faulty methodology was the NBA string I encountered
just last month. I had several plays lose by 20+ points, including three "Best
Bets" in a single week. Note that I had done just as much work on the games
as before the streak occurred. I had applied the same factors during the losing
streak as when I was 17 games over .500 -- but the games quite simply did not
play according to form. After a string of losses, I re-examined my plays in
sequence and I decided that the wear and tear of the regular season was beginning
to neutralize so-called "advantages" I had in statistical methodology
and that emotional and fatigue factors were becoming more important later in
the year. This happens frequently when "meaningless" games are being
played the last six weeks of the season. If losing teams think they can still
make a playoff run (which is the case early to mid season), most teams will
continue to give a solid effort each and every night -- which means most teams
will at least TRY to give a solid effort enhancing a game's predictability.
When this is the case, you can simply determine a team capabilities and then
make a judgement based on the line. But as the season progresses, team and individual
motivations become mixed and more difficult to determine from game-to-game.
You just never know which team will show up from night to night. For instance,
which team will show up the next game -- the Cleveland Cavaliers that scored
122 points versus division-leading Milwaukee on March 4, or the Cavaliers that
scored 78 points against the NBA's worst team, Chicago just three night earlier?
Damn the statistics and the methodology, some games are a total crapshoot.
Hence, the three plausible explanations for a losing streak are as follows:
I. BAD LUCK:
This explains losses only to a certain degree. Anyone can run bad for a week
or two. But if you begin to lose above and beyond what would normally constitute
a temporary down cycle, you are outside the realm of statistical deviation.
Once this occurs, this is an indication of at least one of two possibilities
(1) faulty methodology and/or (2) bankroll mismanagement. The best way to determine
if your losses are an aberration or not is to examine your losses. Did the majority
of losses (in general) play according to form, which means the games pretty
much turned out as predicated and you got a few bad breaks, and lost? Or, did
your favorites inexplicably lose outright? Or, perhaps your underdogs didn't
even show up to play and gave a miserable performance. In either case, this
is a sure sign you are doing something wrong in your pre-game analysis. This
also calls for some subjective judgment on your part. But it is vital that you
try to identify whether or not the streak is caused by temporary downswings
or bad handicapping.
II. FAULTY METHODOLOGY
Since most handicappers apply a combination of factors when analyzing games,
it is not easy to critique methodology. It is even more difficult to critique
oneself, and make corrective measures.
NOVICES: First, let's examine novice handicappers and the mistakes they often
make. The average sports bettor listens to sports talk radio, reads the sports
pages of his local newspaper, and handicaps games largely based on personal
sentiment. Trouble is, his selections are usually grounded in public perceptions
and misperceptions of teams and players. Most novices play the favorites, and
bet OVER the total. Most novices play the public teams and bet against teams
of marginal interest To reiterate the point -- anyone who has ever worked for
a magazine or newspaper knows how useless most "public" information
is -- not only in handicapping games but in getting a true picture of reality.
Sports writers generally focus on the entertainment angle of the upcoming games,
including player personalities, out-of-context quotes and rarely delve into
serious analysis. When games are analyzed, it is often wrong or based on hopelessly
outdated information. I suspect that if you or I could just read the daily sports
page and then somehow quantify going against this public sentiment, we would
all be very rich, indeed. Players that follow sportswriters or TV prognosticators
are a hopeless cause.
SERIOUS HANDICAPPERS: The most common mistake made by more serious handicappers
is prioritizing the wrong factors when analyzing games. For example, let's say
the Utah Jazz are playing at Orlando tonight. On paper the Jazz are the better
team -- both statistically and in player matchups. However, let's also say Utah
is at the end of an East Coast road trip and they played in Miami the night
before. Let's make things even more interesting by saying the Jazz won in overtime.
The Magic, on the other hand are coming off a home loss and have two night rest.
While the Jazz are the better team and probably should be favored -- many "wise"
handicappers would play Orlando in that spot. Right? Trouble is, the Jazz are
favored for a very good reason and may very well play according to form. Remember
that good teams usually play at or near their capabilities on a consistent basis
-- whereas bad team play inconsistently. Bad teams can look pretty good on some
nights against teams in a slump or that have an off night, but will more often
than not play poorly. My point is -- good teams tend to play more consistently,
whether at home or away, a fact which many handicappers may not take into account
when looking at team matchups.
When I see a game that encompasses all of the angles -- such as a hypothetical
Utah-Orlando matchup, (if I play the game at all) I must determine which factors
are important versus those that should be disregarded. This is the key. If I
can accurately pinpoint which factors will apply on this night, the research
is fairly easy to do. All I must look at is the margins of victory in recent
games and compare this to the line, examine player averages, shooting percentages
and a few other factors. Then, more often than not, I have the pointspread winner.
Of course, it's not quite that easy. Trouble is, what happens when a team like
Utah or Orlando falls behind by 10 points? Will the team pack it in, and just
play out the clock? Or, do these teams have the mark of a champion, since pride
will not allow anything less than one-hundred percent effort? What about coaching?
Will coaches insert bench players quickly when the starters are not playing
well? Or, will the coach allow his players to play through a bad shooting night?
The questions are critical.
It is my view that -- regardless of the sport --- as the seasons progress,
you have to apply different factors for different teams, at different stages.
You must be flexible enough to adjust your methodology and react to these changes.
The winning handicapper is one who can foresee what's to come in the days or
weeks ahead and will react simultaneously to the changes that are occurring
around the league. Those who are "behind" the sequence of events and
who make adjustments too late will ultimately suffer the worst losses. They
are in effect, chasing the perpetual pendulum, which is always swinging the
opposite way. They are always a step behind and will inevitably get the worst
lines and make the least advisable plays. You see this happen when a play watches
a game, is overly influenced by what he see in that one game (either good or
bad) and then bets solely based on that observation. For example, the Lakers
won by 25 points last night. Tonight they are favored by only 9 points. So,
tonight I have to play the Lakers minus the points. Another example: Georgia
Tech lost by 19 points their last game. Now, they are a two point favorite!
Whoever they are playing, I'm betting the other side. This is horrendously bad
(but very common) handicapping methodology used by many sports bettors
III. BAD MONEY MANAGEMENT:
Some handicappers pick more winners than losers, but still lose money. This
is because they use poor money management techniques. Most commonly, they bet
parlays and use progressive betting systems. All I can say is if you continue
doing this, there is no hope for you. You will never win spots gambling.
Recommendation: If you are picking more winners than losers, but still losing
money, the remedy is obvious. Make flat bets only! And stick to it!
General recommendations:
Examine your losses carefully. How are you losing games? By a couple of points
on average? Or, are you getting blown out in many of the games? If you are losing
badly, there is something wrong with your methodology.
What did you miss in the pre-game analysis in the games you lost? Did you place
too much emphasis on statistics or emotional factors? Perhaps you missed a late
report that a key player would be out of the lineup. Try to determine what you
did wrong, if anything.
Adjust your methodology so that you will not make those same mistakes twice.
If you missed news of a late injury, you need to gain access to better information.
If you are losing with trends, perhaps you are now seeing "mean regression,"
where most normal random events revert to the statistical mean. This essentially
means the trend you may have thought was a winning proposition may not be. Sort
of like seeing a coin flip ten times and seeing it come up heads all ten times.
You may decide it's a double-headed coin, when the fact is, it's just an uncommon
streak. If you overestimate or underestimated certain factors, try to determine
why the team did not play according to form, the make adjustments based on the
loss.
Look for identical situations recurring later in the season and learn from your
mistake by betting the opposite way. For example, if you have placed too much
emphasis on travel and fatigue factors, the next time a team is on the fourth
game of a road trip, you might want to look for reasons to PLAY on the team.
This doesn't necessarily mean that you should always play the game every time.
Only that many other handicappers will probably be making the same mistake you
did -- but will NOT learn from their errors. You may be able to profit by going
against conventional wisdom (such as playing teams on a long road trip, teams
with a starter out of the lineup, teams coming into a game after an overtime
win -- all of which are concepts that are not necessarily indicative of a sub-par
night to come as is widely believed. The fact is, some of these teams get nice
bonuses in terms of line movement.
Don't give up. Even if you take a break from handicapping, you can hypothetically
test new theories and methods by wagering silently. It is not necessary to use
trials with a financial commitment. You can use down time to examine new angles
and methods -- which if they fail will not cost you anything since you are playing
the game only in theory.
I hope this discussion on losing streaks has been of some interest.
Thanks for reading.
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