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Comments on Kelly staking system.
E-mail on the dangers of overly aggressive staking
sent to the the AFL football Insiders' Forum.
If you have a bank of only $100, use Full Kelly. If you have any sized bank
where it can hurt losing it, you need to take a far more conservative approach.
If you asked Professor Kelly, he'd agree. The formula
wasn't designed for betting, believe it or not. From
all you read here, (referring to the AFL Insiders'
mailing Forum) you'd think it was specifically
designed for betting on AFL matches! He designed it
to solve an engineering problem many years ago without
any regard for risk as I understand it. He didn't
have to consider risk, as it was an engineering problem
that involved no concept of risk. Betting involves
risk as it's main ingredient, which is why the Full
Kelly formula is totally useless in betting.
Don't be fooled by it. At various points in the season, you will see outstanding
returns using Full Kelly. However, the same number of times you will also see
I track the Swinburne ratings fairly closely. The last bad round for the tips
was way back in round 9. Rounds 10-16 have seen the
ratings equal to or better than the bookies prices
each week. Round 17 was poor. But again, a relatively
good record over many weeks.
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