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Soccer betting arbitrage.
E-mail from one of Smartgambler's AFL betting
clients sent to the Insiders' Forum.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, June 06, 2002 11:26 AM
Subject: [Afl] Sports betting article in the AFR today.
Here is an interesting article for all you arbitrage hunters.
Regards, Matt.
S P O R T
World Cup bets a sure thing for fund managers
Jun 6 07:21
Bill McConnell
The World Cup soccer tournament has produced some surprising results - but
it has also delivered the holy grail of money management - a certain return
on investment.
Fund managers in Australia - and presumably elsewhere in the world - have quickly
caught on to the spreads in odds being offered by online betting houses across
the world - odds skewered either by national pride or simply a differing view
of the merits of the two teams.
"There's constant mis-pricing between many of these online betting agencies
and trading one against the other is free money," one Australian fund manager
and soccer fan said this week.
Arbitrage trading in world cup soccer matches is proving such a success that
whole teams of managers are laying bets, according to insiders, and finding
that generating returns is far less challenging than traditional investment
markets. The only catch to making millions is the $1,000 betting limit.
Massive support for the home team - backed up by money - effectively shortens
the odds offered by the online broker located in that country. When these odds
are compared to those odds being offered by online agencies in
other countries, a risk-free profit can be made from the difference.
For example, a zero-risk trade returning 6 per cent can be locked in by spread
betting across all results in the Senegal v Uruguay game being played on June
11.
SportingbetUSA is offering $4.50 on a victory for Senegal while Lion Bets,
an Italian betting agency, has posted a miserly $2.60 on the same result.
But Lion Bets is more generous on a result for Uruguay offering $2.40 against
$1.72 from SportingbetUSA. The odds offered on a draw vary between $3 and $3.30
across a range of brokers.
Investing $1000 across all three possible results with the broker offering
the most generous odds is a guaranteed profit - win, lose or draw.
$236 invested at $4.50 on Senegal with SportingbetUSA would return $1062. A
bet of $442 at $2.40 on Uruguay with Lion Bets returns $1060.80. $322 at $3.30
on a draw with Dutch online agency Planet Pinnacle returns $1062.50. Hence,
with a total of $1000 invested covering all possible outcomes the worst result
is a net profit of $60.80. The net return can be boosted by increasing the bet
on each individual leg up to the $1000 maximum. In this case all three wages
can be doubled without exceeding $1000 and generate a minimum profit of $120
for one night's work in front of the box.
Other recent games have guaranteed a higher yield. Spread betting on results
in the game played between Brazil and Turkey returned 13 per cent for those
hungry enough to look.
Even the most highly anticipated and heaviest backed games offer a guaranteed
profit. Those planning to watch the Argentina / England match can do so while
adding 2 per cent to their portfolio. $930 on Argentina at $2.20 with Lion Bets,
$600 on a draw with SportTAB at $3.40 and $470 on England at $4.35 with Austrian
agency Veikkaus is a no-lose wager.
In every world cup game played a profit has been on offer. The only objection
appears to be the amount of research required for not much result.
But that too is catered for: there's a website that will do the work for you.
BetBrain.com scours all internet betting sites and locates the widest margins
on offer and then calculates the guaranteed profit.
Who needs good luck?
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