Gambling
Related Essays and Reports by Andrew W Scott
Keeping
Sane on the Tournament Circuit (The Long Run - Part
4)
January
27th 2009
Reprinted
courtesy Bluff Australasia and Andrew W Scott
I played and taught high stakes professional BlackJack
all over the world for twenty years before switching
to poker. I'm often asked about the differences between
BJ and poker. One major difference concerns the way
in which you win. With BJ, your all-time history result
wanders along what statisticians call a "random walk
with an upward drift". That's a fancy way of saying
you win slightly bigger and slightly more often than
you lose.
Skilled
tournament poker is very different, because in most
tournaments you don't cash. A lot of your winnings
come from the rare and beautiful times you finish
in the top three. So you have a straight line going
down as you lose, and then occasionally a huge spike
when you win a big prize.
Another
major difference between the games is that the right
answers in BJ are all known. When you have soft 18
and the dealer has a 9, it's right to hit. So you
hit. Now you don't really care whether you win or
lose, because you know you did the right thing. But
poker decisions are much fuzzier than BJ decisions.
How does a tournament pro keep a level head during
the constant downward swings? Well, for me (and trust
me this is how all professionals think), I simply
don't sweat winning or losing. I only care whether
the decisions I make are correct. If I keep making
correct decisions, at the end of the day I must win.
So if I know I'm making correct decisions, I can relax
and feel quite ok through a downward swing.
But,
with poker decisions often being fuzzy, how do you
know that you're playing correctly? Well, at least
some decisions can be analysed quite mathematically.
Here's an example from the six handed event at this
year's Aussie Millions. Online phenomenon Jonathon
"xMonsterxDongx" Karamalikis was sitting on my immediate
right. My stack was 3,600 chips. Blinds were 50/100,
with no ante. It was folded around to Johnathon in
the small blind. He completed. I had 42 offsuit so
I just checked my option. 200 chips in the pot. The
flop came 235, giving me bottom pair and an open-ended
straight draw. He bet 200 chips. If he has a pair
he has me beat, but I have 13 outs - any Ace or 6
gives me a straight, any 2 gives me trips and any
4 gives me two pair. With all those possible outs
and two cards to come I'm about a 50 per cent chance
to hit so I raise to 600 chips. He calls. 1,400 chips
in the pot. The turn is a brick, and he leads out
again for 1,250 chips. Now I still have a 28 per cent
chance to hit two-pair, trips, or a straight. I decided
to shove all-in for my last 2,900 chips, on a semi-bluff.
In the heat of the moment at the table I guess it's
a positive EV play and I really need to get some chips.
He tanks, and says, "that'll teach me for limping
with Jacks, won't it?" Unfortunately for me, Jonathon
shrugged his shoulders, made the call and I didn't
hit. His Jacks held up and I was out of the tournament.
Now
some people would have ended their tournament right
there, but I wasn't quite done yet. I went home, opened
an excel spreadsheet and worked out what percentage
of the time he needed to fold in order to make this
a profitable play. It turns out to be only 24.6 per
cent. For those interested in numbers (and who isn't),
here's how I calculated it: Let f = his chance of
folding. Chance of winning if he calls my shove =
13/46 (13 outs, 46 unseen cards) = 28.3 per cent.
If he folds I win 2,650 chips (his 1,250 chip initial
bet on the turn plus the 1,400 chips already in the
pot from the pre-flop and flop bets). If he calls
and I win, I win 4,300 chips (his 2,900 chips in total
plus the 1,400 chips already in the middle). If he
calls and I lose, I lose my remaining stack of 2,900
chips. So the EV of my move = (f * 2,650) + [ (1-f)
* { (13/46 * 4,300) + (33/46 * -2,900) } ] It works
out the EV of my move equals zero at an f value of
24.6 per cent. If f = 30 per cent, the EV is +189
chips. If f = 40 per cent, the EV is +541 chips. If
f = 50 per cent, the EV is +1,325 chips. Now, here's
the interesting bit! The very next day, I was playing
the teams event, and who should arrive at my table
but Jonathon! I couldn't resist myself. I had to ask.
Me: "Hey Johnathon, when I shoved on you yesterday,
and you had those Jacks, were you more than a 24.6
per cent chance of folding?" Jonathon: "Hmm, yes,
I think I was." All of a sudden, I wasn't worried
about my shove anymore. I had made the right move.
The fact that I didn't win didn't worry me, and I
slept well that night. Well, apart from the fact we
made it to the eleventh level in the teams event and
didn't cash - but that's another story! So when you're
playing poker try to do what's right in the Long Run.
Let the short run take care of itself.
©
2009 Andrew W Scott
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