Tennis betting
testimonials
Section 2
Unlike some businesses, we do not write our own testimonials!
This shabby practice deserves to be exposed wherever
it can be shown to be happening. Lay-out has been
standardised and punctuation and spelling corrected
in some cases for readability. Some members of our
tennis 'insiders' mailing list may appear more than
once because of frequent communication amongst the
group.
Oldest testimonials are at the bottom.
For Tony tennis testimonials section
1, click
here
For Tony tennis testimonials section
3, click
here
For Tony testimonials section 4, click
here
For Tony tennis testimonials section
5, click
here
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 20 April 2003 1:37 PM
Subject: Re: Monte Carlo Final
Coria is 3.25 at William Hill.
Thanks for a great tournament Tony.
Cheers, Rowan.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 17 April 2003 10:10 AM
Subject:
I even took Nadal for 5 units after your hype the
other day!
Well done Tony. Great earnings day.
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 17 April 2003 8:42 AM
Subject: Re: Spadea home for the "Tony Slam"
Well done, Tony!
Volandri @ $4.80, Martin @ $2.10, Chela @ $1.88,
Spadea @ $1.91, Coria @ $1.66 and Boutter @ $1.70.
You are a genius! I know a bad week is coming sooner
or later but boy am I enjoying this at the moment
:-)
Regards, Terry.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 17 April 2003 12:53 AM
Subject: Spadea home for the "Tony Slam"
Tony, Crimson and the team,
Spadea home in 3 sets. Clement showed no fight after
the first set and lost the next two 1 and 2.
Great going T Man.
Good Morning,
Punter J.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 16 April 2003 9:42 PM
Subject: Re: Nuff Nuff
Three from three, love the start.
You were right Tony. You absolutey excel on the clay
surface.
Is anyone keen enough to have a nudge at Mantilla?
Jasin.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 16 April 2003 12:39 AM
Subject: Nadal way too good
Dear ATP Insiders,
It is with great pleasure that I inform all players
who plunged on Rafael Nadal that it wasn't even close.
6-1 6-2.
Well done again Tony.
Good morning all,
Punter Jack.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 16 April 2003 1:06 AM
Subject: Nadal makes it four from five
The wunderkid salutes 61,62. Pity he was the favourite,
as I was expecting a lot better price. It will be
interesting to see how he goes against Costa. Anyway
the winners may have been short but it is always nice
to have two three unit plays get home.
Regards, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 9:20 PM
Subject: Nieminen, Benneteau and Ferreira home, Sanchez
on way home.
Nice start to the bottom half of the draw Round 1
matches, with Nieminen winning 76 (4), 62.
Benneteau 36, 61, 76 (1) and Ferreira 64, 26, 75.
Sanchez with heaps of problems going under 61, 63.
Over to Nadal and fingers crossed for a wonderful
R1 completion.
At this stage R2 is looking quite open. I'll be back
with the sixteen matches for tomorrow once the bottom
half is complete.
Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 10:26 AM
Subject: Re: Nice job Tony
Punter Jack my friend, I am just happy to have crawled
from the wreckage with a deposit on a brand new car,
to paraphrase Nick Lowe.
It looked grim when I went to bed last night. Gaudio
had won, but Zabaleta and Gonzalez had gone under
and Martin and Guga were trailing. So it is with great
relief that I concur with your sentiment and say,
'well done Tony, again!'
Regards, Crimson Tide.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 8:25 AM
Subject: Re: Nice job Tony
I must admit I was worried after Gonzalez and Zabaleta
got us off to a shocking start, got the next 6 though
so a good start after all. At least we managed to
avoid some of the bigger upsets (Roddick, Corretja
to name a couple)
It has thrown up a few interesting match ups for
R2 though. Hopefully we can maintain the strike rate.
Cheers, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 2:20 AM
To: ATP Insiders
Subject: Nice job Tony
Tony,
Nice job on day one of Monte Carlo.
I must admit I couldn't let Norman go around without
me as I detected that you were expecting the market
to be the other way round.
Hope tomorrow goes the same way. We will be very happy.
Are you with me there, Crimson Tide?
Punter Jack.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 9 April 2003 6:04 PM
Subject: Re: Run continues
Great to see people getting great value for money
and making a few quid as well.
I have noticed substantial shortening of some selections
in recent times which would indicate that a few punters
are having quite large bets. One Super Special shortened
from 1.80 into 1.45 at one agency within an hour of
my email.
If you look at my spreadsheet of bets for last year
you will notice a significant jump in returns during
the clay season (even if you take out the yearly salary
figure for Costa winning the French Open). Let's hope
it is replicated this year as two months of consistent
large profits would keep everybody (bar the bookies)
happy.
Note: I have always been concerned that bookies may
just drop tennis off their books if they get hammered
too much. IAS, Tattsbet and Canbet are just a few
that have completely stopped or reduced their involvement.
They don't like running anything at a loss.
Regards, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 9 April 2003 9:13 AM
Subject: Voinea wins!
You little beauty Tony - you are on fire this week!
Voinea home over Arthurs in 3 sets - 36 75 76 (1)
Glad I didn't take the arb!
Regards, Terry.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 8 April 2003 10:51 PM
Subject: Re: Staking Plan
I was just thinking about this some more while taking
the dog for a walk and I think that sticking to Tony's
bet size will probably give the best dollar profit
in the long run.
The problem with the staking plan is you can get
some really big bets - in the analysis I did the bet
size ranged from 0.2 units up to 18.75 units (assuming
a target profit of 1 unit for each bet).
The problem with this is that most of us will have
a maximum bet size we are comfortable with based on
our bank level, etc.
Lets say your maximum bet size is $300. With Tony's
recommended bets this would give a unit size of $100
(I think 3.0 units is the largest bet Tony has recommended)
- with the target system you would have to have a
unit size of around $16 if you didn't want your largest
bet to exceed $300.
Obviously a POT of 20% when betting in $100 units
is going to give a better dollar profit than a profit
on turnover (POT) of 23.5% on $16 units.
For those looking for a higher POT, the simplest
way is probably to only bet when Tony's recommended
bet is 2.0 units or higher - in my records this gives
a POT of around 34% - not a lot of action though!
Regards, Terry.
----- Original Message -----
To: atp_list@ozmium.com.au
Subject: Re: Staking Plan
Punter Jack and everyone else interested,
I had a look at my bets this year based on your idea
regarding staking and some variations on it.
Before I get into the results I should warn everyone
that this is based on the bets I have placed only
and I have only been a member since the beginning
of January. I have missed quite a few of the recommended
bets due to not always having access to the internet
every night and also in the early days I was just
seeing how things went until I got confidence in Tony's
abilities! So people with more data may want to check
these results out for themselves.
Anyway I have 87 bets on my system (up to the Horna
and Massu matches last night)
Betting purely to Tonys recommended bet amounts those
bets show a profit of 20.2% (25.09 units profit from
124 units invested).
If you bet a single unit on each bet (ie. ignore
the unit recommendations from Tony) this drops to
15.7%.
Following the bet system detailed by Punter Jack
(ie. targetting a certain profit from each bet based
on Tony's assessed price and then betting that amount
so your profit is bigger the larger the overlay) then
the POT is 16.4%.
If you use a "modified target" system where
you get your bet amount as per PJ's logic and then
multiply that bet amount by Tony's unit recommendation
then the POT is 23.5%.
As an example of this modified target:
Lets say your target is $100 profit for each "unit"
invested. Looking at last night's Massu match Tony's
price was 1.52 so the unit bet amount would be $100/(1.52-1)
= $192.31. You then multiply this by Tony's suggestion
of 1.25 units to give a bet size of ($192 * 1.25)
= $240. As the actual payout was 1.75 then the profit
from that win would have been $180.
On these figures the "modified target" approach
seems to be very promising although it can hurt you,
eg. the Martin/Srichapan match would have been painful
the other week as it was a 2 unit bet on an assessed
price of $1.35. Anyway food for thought!
Regards, Terry.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 8 April 2003 4:58 AM
Subject: Massu j-j-u-s-s-t
Dear All,
Anyone who is up at 4 a.m. would agree that Massu
/ Vicente was not one for the faint of heart. He lost
the first 0-6, levelled and went on to win in a tie-breaker
having lost his serve twice in the final set.
I am reminded of Damon Runyon, who wrote of punters
who watched the races in front of the Grandstand except
for those with weak hearts, who had to stay around
the back and play cards.
On a serious note, it doesn't look likely that anyone
will better Punter Jack's 2.05 Voinea at Sporting
Bet. I don't think it will be there at the off.
Two for two Tony, well done buddy.
Regards, Crimson Tide.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 8 April 2003 4:55 AM
Subject: Lopez
I also took Lopez at the great price offered by Centrebet.
I'm curious. Tony, if you had known the overlay,
what stake would you place on Lopez considering he
is 2.35 compared to your fair price of 1.53? Do you
use a system where stakes follow value? I more or
less do, and I placed 2 units on Lopez because of
this, as opposed to your 1 unit recommendation.
Massu finally made it after a slow start to the match.
Horna was also a
great selection. Thanks!
Kind regards, Wern.
-----Original Message-----
To: afl_insiders@ozmium.com.au
Subject: Re: Long Live Tinhead!
This has been a great thread, from a second season
member, thanks.
As from last seasons discussion, it's not strictly
possible to lose all of your bank with Kelly betting
because each subsequent bet is meant to have been
resolved before the next bet placed.
What do you guys do when two matches are played at
once?
Thanks to Tony's excellent ATP picks and last weeks
AFL & NRL my bank looks very solid. Too solid
in fact to leave in the bookies hands from match to
match. Do you take out a proportion of your winnings
each week/day & re-submit with your next bet etc?
Thanks in anticipation.
David.
Adelaide. Home of the Crows of course!
(Written to the AFL insiders group, but mentions
the tennis.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 25 March 2003 2:03 PM
Subject: RE: Shocker
Nice turnaround with the selections this morning,
with all four winning.
I wasn't able to find anyone offering the right
price for Costa, but was able
to get something on the other three.
Good work once again Tony.
Jacz.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 24 March 2003 4:56 PM
Subject: RE: Shocker
I'm with David. Whilst its no fun having 3 losing
bets on one night, I'm
still showing a profit for this tournament, and the
previous weeks Master
Series event wasn't bad either.
Jacz.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 24 March 2003 5:01 PM
Subject: RE: Shocker
No worries Tony. It's still a very good month. You
can't win every super
special but I must admit I had a feeling of forboding
when I pushed the
"bet" button for that clown Kafelnikov!
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 24 March 2003 4:47 PM
Subject: Re: Shocker
I'm 4.5 units up for this tournament playing all
of the bets so far, so I'm
happy.
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 24 March 2003 4:39 PM
Subject: Shocker
Well it was due and who better to do it than Kafelnikov.
Tony.
(Referring to the first Super Special loss for
several months.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 21 March 2003 4:10 PM
Subject: Re: Another good round
Yes it was an excellent one. Thanks Tony.
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 21 March 2003 3:54 PM
Subject: RE: Another good round
Yes, an excellent second day, too.
Anyone know what happened to Beck vs Lapentti? I
see the score at Beck
leading 6-4, 2-1. Did bad light/weather stop play
or was there a retirement?
Thanks, Greg.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2003 6:59 PM
Subject: Re: Fish
Just a quick answer as I'm trying to finish off the
qualfiers for tonight.
Super Specials work on comparative data between the
two players and looks at their rating patterns, highest
ever rating, lowest ever rating, improvement, loss
of form and the last 8 weeks of results.
Once this data is applied you normally have two or
three selections per day. I then apply a number of
other factors, however I'm not going to reveal the
exact rules for these as it has taken me about 7 years
of analysis to figure them out, such as surface, weather,
locality etc. and in some cases altitude. Once all
of the factors have been applied I generally come
up with one or two selections per week, with a few
lax periods during the year.
I have been nervous recently as the strike rate is
phenomenal and I'm sure to come a cropper sooner or
later. Let's hope we have a huge bank-roll before
it happens.
I'm glad you are cashing in on the results.
Regards, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2003 5:40 PM
Subject: RE: Fish
Guy,
I don't think Tony would have had Ginepri as a Super
Special even if he was 100.00, though I'm sure he
would have made him a regular bet at 500.
If I understand his method correctly, there are
strict guidelines that Tony applies for a Super Special,
or as he puts it, 'a rigid selection criteria', which
I'm sure Ginepri did not meet. It's the application
of these criteria, which I'm sure doesn't include
available price (could you confirm this Tony?), that
has given him 11 out of 12 approximately for Super
Specials.
Anyway, great tournament last week Tony and a very
good start to this one.
Greg.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 14 March 2003 10:38 PM
Subject: RE: Ginepri bet confirms my belief
I agree with Guy - great work Tony.
I was also on Ginepri and Vahaly because of the
massive overlays and it was a good way to end a very
satisfying week as evidenced by the fact that I've
just returned home after a long Friday lunch.
Thanks Tony - great work! - I got 5.00 from Sportodds
and didn't cop any grief - that kind of garbage from
SB is unacceptable.
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 14 March 2003 11:29 AM
To: Tony
Cc: Guy West
Subject: Re: Indian Wells Round 1
Hi Tony,
Thanks for getting back to me.
I am really enjoying following your service and getting
insights into a professional gambler's strategy. I
have a couple of questions if you
have some time.
Do you ever bet "in the running" I managed
to back Hewitt at 9/1 when
facing match point on betfair (I could only get 3
pounds unfortunately) and then back him at evens when
he broke back and then at 2/5 when 1 set all. It seems
the odds can swing dramatically and better odds can
be obtained on the favourites if they struggle early.
Do you know of any other services like yours for
tennis or other sports? I am interested in committing
some more capital and debating whether to spread my
bets or not.
Have you ever had trouble getting barred from bookies
after being successful for an extended period of time?
Regards, Nick.
(The answer to Nick's last question was 'yes'.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 13 March 2003 1:56 PM
Subject: Re: Indian Wells rd 2
Tony, great work so far this week.
With your comments on the Masters Series tournaments
I was wondering if you have looked at the profitability
of your bets on Masters/Grand Slam
tournaments compared to lower level tournaments? Specifically
do you think it would be worthwhile to increase the
value of a "unit" on the better
tournaments?
For example, if I currently have a 1-unit bet defined
as $50 should I consider increasing that to maybe
$60 on the better tournaments and decreasing it to
say $40 on the lower level tournaments? Or do you
already effectively do this by recommending larger
bets on these tournaments anyway?
I would be interested in your thoughts on this -
or anyone who has been
following Tonys recommendations for a longer time
than I have (only started this year).
Thanks and keep up the great work!
Terry.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 13 March 2003 12:27 PM
Subject: RE: Indian Wells rd 2
Another good day, with 5 from 7 winners, including
another Super Special and a couple of better than
even money winners.
Keep up the good work, Tony !
Jacz.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 4 March 2003 2:42 AM
To: guy@ozmium.com.au
Subject: Hello Guy!
First of all I just want to say that I am pleased
with your/Tony's service.
I'm not quite sure what he means with "Super
Special", but I take it that
this is almost a maximum bet from his side, and I
have bought Lee at 1.40
(Caribsports and Betfair).
Werner.
(H. T. Lee won to make it 8 out of 9 for Tony's
Super Specials.)
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