Rugby League
2003 and 2004 seasons
Unlike some businesses, we do not write
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Some members of our NRL 'insiders' mailing list may
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Note that Professor Stephen Clarke
took over as NRL handicapper from Dr Alan McCabe after
the 2004 season. 2005 and 2006 season testimonials
will be published before the 2007 season.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 3 April 2004 7:17 AM
Subject: RE: Challenge
Great start to the weekend from Tennis/NRL Tony
and "King of the Roughies" Guy.
AFL. Not everyday one is given a 15 / 1 winner that
wins by the length of the straight ( or at least 19
points ) .
NRL. Tony home with his "certain" 2.50 winner to
kick start the kitty for the weekend.
Tennis. Tony adds the icing to the cake with Weiner
coming come overnight What more can one ask for; this
is only the AFL list but winners galore in NRL and
tennis ... should encourage more cross fertilisation
with benefits to everyone.
Bring on Collingwood .... $ 1.62 at Norm Short looks
the best.
Irakli.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 3 April 2004 9:58 AM
Subject: Re: Very quiet?
We're too busy printing 'NRL' money Guy.
Another good call last night, team!
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 15 March 2004 9:45 AM
Subject: good start
Well done, Alan. A nice start and profit for Round
1. Always hard to get it right early. Shame about
the Warriors; I was at the game and thought both sides
were ordinary but especially the Warriors. They were
affected badly by the humidity. With Betham out I
am hopeful the bookies will give us some value on
the Saints next weekend.
Sea Eagles at home to the Roosters (without Wing)
might also be value?
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 11 March 2004 12:02 PM
Subject: RE: Las Vegas Lines
Hi Paleden.
I personally had a return of 20.4% PoT for last year
using the NRL ratings so would have to agree with
Alan on it being possible to get good returns without
applying the points differences. Having said that
of the 45 bets I had last year only 7 were points
handicap bets. The remainder were straight head to
head bets.
Brett, you think your beloved Broncos might have
a tough year; spare a thought for us disillusioned
Rabbitohs supporters. Gone are the days of players
going to England to finish their careers (and get
the cash!), now all they have to do is move to Redfern
(Hill and McDougall not the best buys in the NRL this
year!)
Here's to another profitable season. Didn't waste
any money on the Rabbitohs last year and yet to be
convinced to do anything different this year.
Regards, Jacz.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 19 September 2003 3:21 PM
Subject: Injured Raiders
Alan et al,
Reading the Canberra Times (which has been very accurate
with the Raiders all year) I am left with the impression
that Monaghan, with the help of some Lourdes water,
will play 70 minutes and Drew will play 40 to 50.
On that basis, will you back the Raiders at 10.5
start?
Regards, Crimson Tide.
(having my first winning season on Rugby League ever)
Ditto. Just tried the Storm and the Pathers (-6.5
points) myself, however a magnificent weekend.
Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 14 September 2003 6:52 PM
Subject: RE: What a weekend!
Thanks, David. It was certainly my best profit week-end
for the season and hopefully everyone made some money.
You were unlucky not to get up on the 13+ Panthers
as the Broncos were absolutely woeful once again.
Having said that I thought the Panthers were also
very sloppy and they will be tested in 2 weeks time
by either the Warriors or Raiders.
Roosters are coming good and should enjoy the 2 week
rest. The Warriors were awesome but I'm not prepared
yet to write off the Raiders. If they can put their
best side (minus Croaker) on the park then their discipline
may frustrate the Warriors. If the Raiders are below
strength then I'll be on the Warriors.
The Storm v Bulldog game is shaping up as a close
one, Orford absolutely brilliant for the Storm on
Friday night and if their forwards can step up again
there might be some value with the Storm again (I'm
sure the bookies will still have Dogs as big favourites)
The hooking position and back row for the Dogs is
their weakness and it's starting to show. Anyway,
early days yet and hopefully things will become clearer
during the week.
How did you view the weekend games Alan/Terry/anyone?
Let's hope a couple of Tony's tennis tips tonight
can put the icing on a good week-end.
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 14 September 2003 6:00 PM
Subject: Re: What a weekend!
Thank you Alan & Brett et al:
Storm, Warriors + Panthers 11 units in 20.3 (total)
out!
I got a little greedy and tried a small amount of
13+ on the Panthers (after your hype on Thurs Brett),
otherwise it would have been more out. Thanks Terry
for your "steadier" with the Storm/Raiders match 'cos
I don't know a thing about NRL.
Licence to print money this weekend! Thanks also
Brett for your weekly translation into unit bets.
Now that there's plenty of NRL cash in the bank, up
goes the unit bet.
Well done team.
David S.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 1 September 2003 10:10 AM
Subject: In summary
"Lots of bets for me (why not? - second last
round)
Broncs 4 units over Parra
Roosters over Warriors (as above)
Cowboys 3 units over Tigers
Knights 2 units over Saints
Sharks 2 units at 13+ over Souths"
Brett, I took your 2,4 and 5 suggestions above because
in my naive state the others depended on player line-up
which I didn't feel confident in assessing. So I cleaned
up very nicely.
Thanks to you both.
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 25 August 2003 1:38 PM
Subject: Re: Mait strikes back
I did and I thank you both very much.
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 25 August 2003 7:24 AM
Subject: Mait strikes back
Well done Alan, two very good value winners at good
prices bring home the bacon (Storm/Warriors) Got on
Storm myself after the late news re Firman and also
had a nice plunge on your Cowboys @ -11.5 after Matt
Sing was a confirmed starter.
Hope everyone else got the money.
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 18 July 2003 9:30 PM
Subject: panthers salute
Well done Alan, the Panthers home easily at good
value.
Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 10 July 2003 8:53 PM
Subject: Price Update
Hi all.
A price update of a couple of NRL games this weekend:
Tigers v Sharks
Tigers $1.93 (Pinnacle)
Sharks $2.10 (Eurobet)
Dragons vs Raiders
Dragons $2.00 (Complete)
Raiders $2.10 (Eurobet)
So if you're quick and have an account with Eurobet,
there's some guaranteed wins there.
Cheers, Alan.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 6 July 2003 4:21 PM
Subject: Re: NRL Round 17
Looks like they are just about to do it. Another
brilliant round Alan!
Many thanks.
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 2 June 2003 6:23 PM
Subject: Post R12
Thanks again Alan & agree with MAIT that there is
no "stand out" bet this week-end but also Brett, as
this weekend just gone was quite profitable as well.
(It will be hard to beat last week though!)
Thanks once again from a Crow-eater who's never been
to a match of Rugby. I'll have to travel interstate
to enrichen my life!
David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 26 May 2003 10:45 AM
Subject: RE: Welcome back
It was a good week-end and I think it also told us
a bit more about the teams and some of their key players.
Let's hope the Bookies weren't watching!
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 26 May 2003 6:57 AM
Subject: Re: Welcome back
Yes, thankyou Alan and Brett as well, for his very
confirming summary.
I even took St George - Illawarra for +9.5 on Bretts
"hold my breath" advice!
Thanks again. David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, 24 May 2003 9:26 PM
Subject: Re: Welcome back
Yet another outstanding day. Storm in an absolute
nail biter (they would have been stiff to lose) and
then the Cowboys easily. Winners at 2.70, 2.45, 2.50
and 2.85.
When you wrote your comments during the week "There's
plenty of games this week where MAIT disagrees with
the bookies, so hopefully a few can get home", I presume
you didn't expect this absolute windfall.
Thanks Alan. Those sort of selections speak for themselves.
Regards, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 13 May 2003 7:47 PM
Subject: Last week
I know it has taken a few days, but
I wanted to say congrats for getting the Pathers at
a nice price.
I have decided that the Storm have cost
me too much all year (lose when I'm on, win when I'm
on their opposition) so avoided them this week and
for a while more.
The Bulldogs are starting to do similar
things for me.
It has been a topsy turvy couple of
rounds but I am confident of a + on the bottom line
at the end of the season.
Regards, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 11:17 PM
Subject: RE: Season to date
Hi guys,
Thanks for the positive feedback :-)
The "two-tier rule" has worked well and
picked up 8 of 9 since round 2. Last week with the
Knights and particularly the Raiders, it was very
nice indeed. I'm glad a lot of people got on.
I guess it has to ease off a little some time, but
hopefully we can all ride the streak a little longer
yet.
Cheers, Alan.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 6:19 PM
Subject: RE: Season to date
I agree, well done Alan. On a weekend when most good
tipsters struggled to get 3 or 4 selections right
you came up with 2 value tips. I was on Newcastle
but didn't take Canberra - won't let that happen again!
Thanks,
Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 5:59 PM
Subject: Re: Season to date
I'm with both of you, I approached last weekend with
Newcastle and Canberra not very hopeful and am now
ready to pin my ears back.
Keep up the magificent work.
Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 2:22 PM
Subject: Re: Season to date
I wholeheartedly agree. Five out of five since I've
started. Time to increase my unit bet!
Regards, David.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 April 2003 1:02 PM
Subject: Season to date
Alan, you are doing an outstanding job. To defy the
market place and be so thoroughly vindicated, as you
were with Canberra, is very hard to do.
Please feel free to keep it up.
Crimson Tide.
-----Original
Message-----
To: afl_insiders@ozmium.com.au
Subject: Re: Long Live Tinhead!
This
has been a great thread, from a second season member,
thanks.
As
from last seasons discussion, it's not strictly possible
to lose all of your bank with Kelly betting because
each subsequent bet is meant to have been resolved
before the next bet placed.
What
do you guys do when two matches are played at once?
Thanks
to Tony's excellent ATP picks and last weeks AFL &
NRL my bank looks very solid. Too solid in fact to
leave in the bookies hands from match to match. Do
you take out a proportion of your winnings each week/day
& re-submit with your next bet etc?
Thanks
in anticipation.
David.
Adelaide. Home of the Crows of course!
(Written
to the AFL insiders group but mentions the NRL)
From:
Tony
Sent: Sunday, March 16, 2003 5:51 PM
Subject: Great start
Well done Alan, on a great start to the NRL package.
I personally tried:
The Roosters to beat the Eels
The Tigers with a +6.5 head start
Raiders over the Cowboys
The Knights over the Warriors, and
The Panthers with +7.5 head start
Needless to say I couldn't be happier, five winners
from 5 bets.
Keep up the good work, as all of those bets were based
on your comments and the roughies I tried with the
start, given the closeness in the MAIT rating (only
15 ranking points for the Tigers and 3 for the Panthers).
Regards, Tony.
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