Tennis betting
testimonials
2004
Note: Nick Wheatley has been the OZmium tennis
expert since Wimbledon 2004, taking over from Tony
M who had to stop because of family commitments.
Unlike some businesses, we do not write
our own testimonials! This shabby practice deserves
to be exposed wherever it can be shown to be happening.
Lay-out has been standardised and punctuation and
spelling corrected in some cases for readability.
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may appear more than once because of frequent communication
amongst the group.
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We have kept the 5 pages of testimonials
from the two year period when Tony M ran OZmium's
tennis package, to emphasise our consistency in employing
winning handicappers.
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Nick Wheatley tennis testimonials
page 1
Newest
testimonials will be at the top of this page, starting
from after Wimbledon 2004 when Nick Wheatley was employed
as handicapper.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 25 November 2004 10:25 AM
Subject: RE: [atp_list] thank-you
Yep, great work so far Nick.
Looking forward to next year.
James.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 4 November 2004 3:08 PM
Subject: RE: [atp_list] Excellent week
Amazing week .... 10/10 tough to beat in the future
and the run hasn't finished yet ... so many thanks
Nick.
I followed the Betfair market on the US election
yesterday morning ... amazing too. Huge arbs going
( 85% ) ... the few bookies who kept their markets
open during the day couldn't keep up with the fluctuations
going on on Betfair, no matter how quickly they wound
Kerry in.
Kerry backed into $1.30 with a lot of money, no-one
wanted to touch Bush during the day. Missed the afternoon
mayhem on Betfair and settled for a nice round of
golf. Must have been fun watching the in-running market
go into sudden reverse though. I thought at the time
it must have been some exit polls the smarties were
basing their knowledge on, but think you're right
D2 and it was not more than the sight of large queues
everywhere ... a little less scientific.
Somewhat similar at the last Aussie election when
Howard was available on Betfair at $1.30+ on the Friday
night, with a few spooked by the Morgan poll. You'd
get a more accurate poll than his down at the pub
just before closing.
Irakli.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 4 November 2004 11:25 AM
Subject: [atp_list] Excellent week
As Nick has just pointed out, 10 out of 10 for this
week! I can top that - I've got 12 out of 11! The
bonus win was from having backed Makybe Diva (the
winner of the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday for the unaware
non-Australians on this list) free with the IASBet
promotion 4 weeks ago at odds of $11 for $20 (I keep
only the winning portion of $200).
I also backed Bush for president at $2.36 on Betfair
after 13% of the vote had been counted and he had
about 53-54% of the popular vote. That was a weird
in-running market - did anyone follow that on Betfair
or elsewhere? It seems the market was seriously spooked
by a theory that the long lines for people waiting
to vote and the expected record voter turnout indicated
a sizeable protest vote and a win for Kerry.
Bush was $1.77 late on Monday night (US time) and
got out to $5.00 on the basis of that theory! By the
time the votes started being counted he slid real
fast all the way down to $1.33. I managed to get on
about two-thirds of the way down. I observed the market
with Bush at $2.64 but after stuffing around for about
5 minutes with phoning in for the first time on Betfair
(in-running internet betting on this was banned in
Australia) and not knowing my phone code, he'd come
in to $2.34. By the time I'd discussed with a colleague
what a smart move I'd done, he'd dropped to $2.10,
and by the time I got back from lunch 40 minutes later
he was at $1.33.
Happy punting, D2.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 2 November 2004 11:08 AM
Subject: [atp_list] Re: Last night
Thanks Nick.
2 + 3 (shortlist) wins last night plus I loaded a
bit more on Tsonga (CentB @ 3.55) after your write-up.
Just like the old times!
Cheers, David S.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 8 October 2004 1:57 AM
Subject: Re: [atp_list] Re: Tokyo Thurs
Sorry David, forgot about everyone else trying to
get on :-)
I'd already bet Hewitt 2-1 (@ 15/2), and then once
I saw Nick was joining in, I hit SJ for the limit
at 13/2, 6, and 11/2. Seems when I have already bet
and Nick tunes in on the same side, am winning an
amazing 153% POT since start of Sept. (wasn't keeping
records prior to then).
So thanx Nick, for the additional confidence that
I needed to attack this one so hard. Was also very
handy that the hard work was done after the 1st set.
Ajax.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 7 October 2004 3:37 PM
Subject: [atp_list] Re: Tokyo Thurs HEWITT tb Suzuki
BY 2-1
Great call Nick, except SJ had been battered to 5.50
by the time I got there, but I still took it!
Cheers, David S.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 30 September 2004 12:16 AM
Subject: [atp_list] slow... slow bookies
Anyone else frustrated with how long it's been taking
for some of the Australian books to get prices up
for the Asian tournaments?
By the way, great service Nick! Particularly like
the anlysis of each bet. Looking forward to renewing
my subscription in the months ahead.
Keep up the good work. Ken.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 26 September 2004 1:53 PM
Subject: Re: Tennis sub
Guy,
I have just paid for another year. Kindly activate
asap, thanks.
Regards, Jeremy.
P.S. Tennis is my favorite betting sport now!
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 8 September 2004 1:54 PM
Subject: [atp_list] Roddick
3 + 2 + 4 = 9 :-) Nice one again Nick, thanks. And
a special thank you to our Betfair friends and our
very good friends at Centrebet...hope we were all
on there lads.
Cheers, Brett.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 1 September 2004 6:33 PM
Subject: [atp_list] controversy
Firstly let me say that I think Nick's service is
great and I hope to be subscribing for many years
to come. His results are excellent and his analytical
approach is fantastic. I acknowledge with the USA
Open so far we are all well ahead.
However I think it's a bit early to be popping the
champagne. We are still awaiting today's results for
one treble and three doubles on very short price players
and if we follow the staking recommendations to reasonably
high stakes it would only take 2 players to lose for
virtually all the other profits to be wiped out.
Yesterday Schuettler lost and luckily we weren't
on him, but he could have easily been in any of our
doubles or trebles as he looked a certainty. So let's
wait for a few hours and see that the 4 outstanding
large stake bets go our way. I'm not trying to be
negative, only realistic and I hope Nick isn't offended.
TONY G. UK.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 1 September 2004 11:35 AM
Subject: Re: [atp_list] Tuesday
Likewise, very impressed.
David S.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 1 September 2004 11:19 AM
Subject: [atp_list] Tuesday
Well done Nick, 7 from 7.
James.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 24 August 2004 8:27 AM
Subject: RE: Tennis renewal
"Hopefully not a bad month for you...I've had
quite a good one."
Had an amazing month with tennis. I'll make the
deposit today. Just checked the website, the price
is $891?
Also noticed that NBA is coming soon (very interested
in this). The NFL system also looks pretty profitable.
James.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 20 August 2004 7:57 AM
Subject: Re: Tennis subscription
Hey Guy,
Thanks for the reminder and for the good year in
Tennis/MLB in general. I definitely intend to continue.
Yury.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 19 August 2004 1:26 PM
Subject: Re: Olympics QF
I agree. A great call on Gonzalez; it’ll be interesting
to follow him for the rest of the week and at other
national representation tournaments. I like to follow
these unusual one-off factors.
Happy punting. D2
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 19 August 2004 11:12 AM
Subject: [atp_list] Re: Olympics QF
Hi Team.
Thanks Nick for your notes on Gonzalez. Took him
at Centrebet to win the Gold at 26/1 (1 unit, I know
a bit extravagant!) pre Roddick, now he's 7/1 with
Grosjean 5.5.
Obviously plenty of units to play with and I havn't
seen any prices yet. When would you guys start laying
off?
Thanks again, David S.
PS. I've kept records of the 'shortlist' bets and
will try and get them into a presentable form for
you all.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 17 August 2004 10:24 PM
Subject: [atp_list] Re Short List
I'm enjoying the short list. 7 out of 9 is great
(I bet half units)!
Keep up the good work.
Cheers, David S.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 4 August 2004 1:21 PM
Yeah Guy, my name is David and I have been with the
tennis program since the start of the year. I love
the way you guys do business and I love reading all
the forums and what everyone has to say.
One guy James who I think is known as Mr J as well
is a youngish bloke like myself and seems to know
a lot about betting etc. I would like it if you could
pass on my email to him and let him know I wouldn't
mind having a chat to him etc. I don't want to give
my email out on the froums so I thought this would
be the safest way to do it. Could you let him know
my email address and tell him I wouldn't mind a chat?
If he doesn't then thats ok as well.
Thanks, Dave!
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 29 July 2004 11:18 PM
Subject: Re: [atp_list] few snippets...
Thanks for the updates, Ajax. I have a couple of
sources in Canada at the moment and it looks as though
we may share a common one as I received exactly the
same information.
Did anybody notice how a certain website has a "guest"
tipster at the moment? I have been informed that the
well known tipster is also in Canada at the moment.
Keep up the good work. No disclaimers required by
me.
Cheers, Tony.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 29 July 2004 3:04 PM
Subject: [atp_list] Nick's great record with Multis
According to my stats, since becoming our tipster,
Nick has made 7 multi tips, involving 16 matches (all
doubles except one involving 4 – remember the Gaudio
match?) and all 16 of them have won! The average dividend
I’ve obtained is 1.23.
One might think that this means those who have bet
multis are much better off than those who take each
leg of a multi separately (ie singles). In fact, the
multi strategy has only a 5% greater profit according
to my stats. Where the difference between the two
strategies lies is in the placement of the losers,
and we haven’t had any of them yet; ie singles do
better than multis when only one leg loses in a multi,
and they do worse when more than one leg loses in
a multi.
My rule of thumb when betting singles from a 2 leg
multi tip is you can increase each bet to cover one
third of the multiplier effect in order to create
the same total volatility as for the multi, ie if
the tip is for a 1.5 unit multi with two legs each
paying 1.50 each then the multiplier effect is 1.5
x 1.5 -1 – 0.5 - 0.5 = 0.25. You then take 1/3 of
the ratio of the multiplier effect to the win portion
of the dividend, ie 0.25/0.5/3 = 1/6, which means
you should increase the units by 1/6 to 1.75 for each
leg you bet separately. For greater multi’s this doesn’t
work but the principal is the same, you can increase
your bet by a little bit.
Happy punting. D2
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Sunday, 25 July 2004 9:14 PM
Subject: [atp_list] timing of email advice
Gentlemen,
I must say how impressed I am at the extraordinary
hit rate that Nick has managed since taking over from
Tony, who we all know would be a very hard act to
follow. Nick is exceedingly astute in his judgements
and I wish him well for the remainder of the season.
Thank you. Travice.
(Excerpt from longer e-mail about the timing of
mail-outs.)
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 26 July 2004 8:24 PM To: atp_list@ozmium.com.au
Subject: Re: [atp_list] timing of email advice
Nice work Nick.
I was going to be one of your biggest skeptics and
you were going to always behind the 8-ball following
in Tony's footsteps, but winners or not, I like your
set up.
Your brief descriptions on a number of games has
been very helpful. Look forward to the coming hard
court season, a portion of the year I dread annually,
as all I try and do is minimise giving back what I
made on the dirt and grass.
Ajax.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 26 July 2004 2:38 PM
Subject: [atp_list] Arb
Malisse available at 2.05 at multibet. They could
possibly claim that was an error though.
Chela 2.20 at Bet365.
Nathan.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, 26 July 2004 5:19 AM
Subject: RE: [atp_list] timing of email advice
Okay... about futures betting. The only reason a
hedge is justified mathematically is if you have overbet
the future, or unless the hedge creates a greater
return. The question you should be asking is, was
it positive expectation to lay Moya? Nick's advice
wasn't correct because it was being 'safe', it was
correct because the hedge had +EV value.
Nick and Tony both believed Moya had less than a
50% chance, so laying Moya at better than evens meant
a positive expectation return. We have to consider
the current value of the future, and the value if
hedged.
Let's say Moya had a 40% chance of winning it. Say
our unit is worth $100. Letting it ride would have
had an expectation of $20 (40% we win $200, 60% we
lose $100. Taking the hedge, laying $200 on Moya at
2.15 is a risk free $130 if the field wins. So 40%
of the time we break even, and 60% of the time we
will win $130, so the expectation would be $78.
It's obvious which is the better move here, so Nick
definitely made the right call here.
James.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, 20 July 2004 10:21 PM
Subject: Re: Tennis subscription
Dear Guy,
Thanks for the reminder about my year's subscription
to the tennis service expiring recently. Also a big
thank you for the opportunity of being part of the
service to begin with. It's been a lot of fun, and
the subscription more than paid for itself several
times over with my takings from the various sports
books. Besides that, the camaraderie with the fellow
punters almost justified the subscription fee by itself!
Unfortunately I will not be able to be part of the
service for the time being. I am shortly off overseas,
probably for about a year. Although my internet arrangements
are unknown at this stage, it is unlikely I will have
regular enough access to get sufficient value out
of a sports subscription service. If when I get to
the UK this turns out not to be the case, I will give
serious consideration to joining the service again
from over there.
May I wish the very best of luck to you, Nick with
his tipping and the fellow punters with their winning.
You have all made this a very enjoyable experience
for me. And I cannot pass up the opportunity for a
huge thank you to Tony. Many superlatives have already
been given to the man on this forum, and he deserves
every one of them. Hopefully in his fully deserved
capacity of life member of the service, he can continue
to be a valuable member of the forum.
From what I have seen so far with his tipping on
this forum, and from information elsewhere on the
net, I also have every confidence in Nick's credentials
as an excellent tennis tipster, and tennis connoisseur
in general. You are very lucky to have the services
of these two gentlemen, and have done very well to
secure their services.
All being well, I will be delighted to be part of
the service again some time in the future. Until that
time, I shall miss it very much!
Best wishes, Darren.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 22 July 2004 6:08 AM
Subject: [atp_list] Nice night.... That's 25/31 and
25%POT (I bet singles) so far, couldn't ask for a
better start.
I guess we are experiencing the 'correction' that
seemed due for Nick ;)
James.
An example of the useful little mathematical treatises
we often get from within the group.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, 14 July 2004 11:10 AM
Subject: [atp_list] Comments on the 4-way multi
I guess Nick’s comments about frowning regarding
the multi was directed at me – in fact quite the opposite
is true. I like to have more bets than less and I
look at a 4 way multi as 4 bets so I’m quite happy.
I will partially demonstrate how I structure my bets
when a multi tip comes through – I think the rest
of it is explained in my paper, so I won’t repeat
it here. I contend that by structuring my bets in
this way I expect to increase my profit by 70% more
than if you simply took the multi with the best bookie.
Based on an information ratio of 0.08, the expected
profit on the dream bookie combination shown by Nick
is 0.125 per unit. ie 12.5% POT, while the best bookie
combination is only 0.1045, ie 10.45% POT.
With a 6 bookie stable, I expect my dream bookie
multi to obtain a 5.4% higher return than the best
bookie multi, ie 16.4% POT.
By optimally structuring the bets I will outlay 5.3
times the suggested amount (1.65 units @1.10 times
2, 1.06 units @1.22, and 0.93 units@1.28) but will
equate the standard deviation of the total outcome
with that of the multi and generate an expected profit
of 0.145 per unit.
These two effects when combined mean I expect a profit
of 0.185 per unit for the singles strategy, given
the expected profit for the multi strategy was 0.1045
per unit.
Happy punting. D2.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, 9 July 2004 10:53 PM
Subject: [atp_list] Results so far...
I know it's still early days but a good start for
Nick. I'd also like to say I've had no trouble getting
at least the same price as Nick, usually better. I
have had to increase the number of books I use, but
that really just brings more profit anyway.
James.
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, 10 June 2004 9:29 AM
Subject: RE: A thought about Nicks record...
James...I hope I don't put the mockers on Nick, but
he has had a stellar 3 days this week. Turnover of
9 units with a profit of 8.5 units for me so far :-)
Brett.
(Note: Brett was a subscriber to Nick's service
as well as Tony's, before Nick joined OZmium and was
keeping OZmium subscribers informed prior to the handover.)
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