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2016 Melbourne Cup Form Guide and Predictions

From Fonthip Ward.
October 2016.

 

With final declarations due within the week, it's time to hunker down and start taking a serious look at the 2016 Melbourne Cup. Most on-track and online bookmakers have posted lines and the field is starting to take shape. Not surprisingly, online betting odds Melbourne Cup indicate this race figures to be wide open with as many as 11 possible starters sitting at odds of 18-1 or less.

Betting Melbourne Cup races is always a great challenge as horses come in from all over the world to contest the richest turf race on the planet at the grueling, unique staying distance of 3200 meters. With Scottish being the only doubtful among the top 10 horses based on odds, here's a list of the most prominent contended and their current future book odds.

Hartnell - 4.60 After finishing a nice second behind the incomparable Winx in last weekend's W.S. Cox Plate, the nation is waiting to see if the connections will enter Hartnell back in the Cup. He was used hard to hold second in a race he was never going to win. Assuming he makes the trip, he's a deserving favourite, but there are legitimate questions about him getting the distance.

Jameka - 6.50 This is the horse where a majority of the Melbourne Cup favourites tips figure to land. With wins in the Group 1 Crown Oaks last season and the Group 1 Caulfield Cup earlier this month, the 3200 meter distance of the Melbourne Cup seems well within this mare's reach. Her victory in the Caulfield Cup was simply breath-taking. She did finish behind Hartnell in the Group 1 Turnbull, but seems better suited to the extra distance.

Almandin - 12.00 After beating 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist is June in a Group 2 in Germany, Almandin's connections started plotting a course to this year's Melbourne Cup. He's been down under since July and figures to be well acclimated. After winning the Group 3 Bart Cummings here at Flemington earlier this month, he looks to be rounding to his best form of the year.

Big Orange 16.00 - As a two-time winner of England's Group 2 Goodwood Cup (3219 meters), Big Orange is the only horse in the field to have won a Group event at the Melbourne distance. When betting Melbourne Cup races, that angle should be given serious consideration. The fact this one finished 5th in last year's Melbourne Cup further enhances his credentials. Big Orange hasn't been seen since winning his second Goodwood Cup in July, but he has fired fresh before.

Exospheric 16.00 - Exospheric is a lightly raced 4-year old that might still have some room for improvement. He usually races around the fringes in some the best races in Europe, but a recent 3rd to Jameka in the Caulfield Cup points him out as a horse that could show sudden improvement and jump up with a big performance at a distance he might like.

The Bet: Jameka is a classy mare that has shown when she gets good, she can string winning races together. Her victory in the Caulfield Cup was so easy, one could clearly see she had much more left in the tank. Conversely, Hsrtnell didn't look particularly sharp holding second in the Cox Plate. It might be a case where the horse could be a tad over the top. In recent times, Makybe Diva and Winx have shown the world that talented mares can beat talented horses and geldings anywhere at anytime. Jameka might not be that good, but she isn't far off. At 6-1, she's the play for the win. Almandin and Big Orange make interesting exacta partners. A live stream Melbourne Cup will be available through many of Australia's top online bookmakers.

 

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