Gambling related articles
Note: This essay is written for an American audience.
Finding
an Edge in Minor Sports
By Simon Noble
Reprinted courtesy of Pinnacle
Sportsbook
To the uninitiated the mechanics of the stock market
can seem somewhat of a mystery. The rise and fall
of share prices can be difficult to pre-empt as market
reaction normally occurs a full week before good or
bad news is released, yet once the information hits
the headlines, it creates barely a ripple. For an
average investor waiting to act until after good news
is released is a quick route to the poor house. Many
times, I’ve sat on my hands and watched a stock rise
or fall during the day, and later thought “if only
I bought it before the price shot up, or shorted before
it tanked!”
While this can seem difficult to achieve without
a crystal ball or privileged information, you can
get a jump on sports or financial markets and turn
that edge into profit. Instead of waiting for public
reports (from SEC filings to midweek injury reports),
you can often gain information just by closely monitoring
price movements.
For a good recent stock illustration of this principle,
look no further than the recent crash of Northfield
Laboratories. The company was testing a human-blood
substitute, with a critical progress report expected
on December 19 after the close of markets. That afternoon
the “line” on the stock dropped from over 14 to 11.
Nearly 30% of its shares had been “sold short” – an
investor’s way of betting the stock will crash. With
those two signs, most people correctly assumed the
report would be bad. The “betting pattern” on this
stock revealed the failure long before the public
announcement. The stock dropped over 50% the day after
its failed test results were disclosed, rewarding
those who understood the move and bet against Northfield.
To apply this theory to sports, consider this scenario:
Payton Manning (listed as questionable) is sitting
in the locker room on Sunday morning with worried
head-coach, Tony Dungy. “How does your tweaked thumb
feel?” Dungy asks. His star quarterback frowns, and
replies, “Not good. I have no touch on the ball, so
I’ll probably give it one more week to heal.” The
scene changes to you sitting at home in front of your
computer, scratching your head and wondering why line
on the Colts moved from -3 -104 to -3 +111 at Pinnacle
Sportsbook?
A few of the other larger-limit sportsbooks have
already reacted by moving their lines significantly,
but not everyone. Regardless of whether you know Manning’s
injury status, the line moves at the big books tell
all you need to know. Mannings’ participation was
questionable, the line is moving swiftly against Indy,
so the market thinks the Colts are less likely to
win QED – the negative prognosis on Manning’s injury
is spreading to Sportsbooks. Anytime you see a 10+
cent move, you can get the best of it by “chasing
the steam” – in this case, fading the Colts at slower-moving
small sportsbooks. These books obviously hate it when
players beat them to the punch, and may even throw
you out, but not before nicely padding your bankroll.
In stocks and sports, information is money. While
you can gain indirect information from watching price
moves, nothing in sports betting is as profitable
as gaining first-hand injury information. Without
hiding in the locker room or knowing the personal
trainers, you aren’t going to outguess NFL injury
announcements. Set you sights a little lower and change
the focus to smaller sports. Start reading University
and regional newspapers covering smaller schools that
have Div I-A and I-AA programs, covered by sportsbooks.
Many times, key player or coaching information -
dynamite for smart players - goes unnoticed past kickoff.
These smaller events do not attract syndicate action,
leaving them ripe for more casual players. If it sounds
like we’re repeating ourselves, it’s because the point
is crucial for smaller players. If you bet $1000 or
less per game, you will profit handsomely by focusing
outside of professional sports. The lines for these
events do not react quickly, if at all, to player
injuries, weather or coaching announcements.
If you are a smaller player looking to move up, pick
a single minor sport and hone in on it. Try Ivy League
football, Albanian Soccer, Greek basketball, or any
event that is not covered on the front page of ESPN
or USA Today’s sports section that has valuable information
available with a bit of digging. For two weeks, try
to spend 15 minutes a day researching that one area.
With this little time spent, you’ll likely find some
nice opportunities. If you try this, we at Pinnacle
Sports Betting would like to know how it goes.
Send your findings to: askthebook@pinnaclesports.com.
Pinnacle
Sports Book is an online betting company providing
extremely competitive odds on sportsbook gambling,
online horseracing and online casino gaming. With
excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts and
secure Internet betting, Pinnacle
Sportsbook satisfies all your
sports book betting requirements and game wagering
needs. Pinnacle
also offers reduced juice betting.
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