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This Australian Rules Football Odds Calculator is based on the normal distribution model for predicting probability and odds of outcomes. It takes the Predicted Line, Quarter's Played and Score Difference as inputs to calculate a variety of results. A standard deviation of 38 is used and was derived from historical data. This model has shown itself to be reasonably accurate given past results.

Select the 'Predicted Line' in terms of the number of points the favoured team is predicted to win by. Commonly used Predicted Lines are the bookmakers line or as determined by a handicapping model. Team 1 is considered to be the favourite in all cases.

Select the number of 'Quarter's Played'. Use 0 to obtain before the game odds.

Select the current 'Score Difference' in terms of the favourite team. If the underdog team is winning select a negative score difference.

Disclaimer

As with all models the probabilities and odds calculated may be erroneous and not reflect reality. The reasons for errors could be but are not limited to the following:

• Inaccurate 'Average Winning Margin' entered.
• Inaccurate standard deviation due to factors such as changes in playing styles or weather.
• Non-normality of results.
• Predicted line(ie mode) is significantly different from the mean winning margin.
• Change in predicted line and standard deviation over the course of the game when calculating "in the run" probability and odds.

This calculator is provided for entertainment purposes only. No responsibility will be taken for any loses incurred as a result of using this calculator.